AM Comments April 21 2025

Posted on Apr 21 at 07:26

Good morning. Ag markets are quietly higher coming out of the long holiday weekend, with the observance of Easter Monday in other countries around the world acting to curtail volume a bit in the early going on Monday. Amid ongoing tariff discussions and what appears initially to be a friendly ruling by USTR on vessel fees at US ports late last week, much of the early week trade this week will be dominated by planting progress headlines, with Midwest rains generally coming in at the lower end of expectations over the last 72 hours. On top of decent progress last week in some places, this should allow more headway to be made over the next few days with forecasts showing mostly spotty precip potential. Corn futures to start out Monday morning are trading 2-4 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 4-5 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is up 3-4 cents. Products are higher, soybean meal is up around $1.50/ton, and soybean oil is up around 10 points. Outside markets are trading mostly lower, crude oil futures are down $1.40-1.50/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 380 points, and the US$ index is down 120 points; the S&P500 is down 60 points and the NASDAQ is down 260 points. New contract lows for the $ index. Gold futures are up $80-90/oz and have again made new contract highs overnight.

 

Today's Reports: Weekly Export Inspections; Weekly Crop Progress

 

  • The CFTC's Commitment of Traders report from Friday afternoon showed managed money traders in the week ending April 15th were buyers of 70,811 contracts of corn (net-long 124,258), buyers of 76,616 contracts of soybeans (net-long 26,169), and buyers of 5,692 contracts of Chicago wheat (net-short 96,349); this was the largest week of fund buying in corn since the week of December 10th last year, and the largest week of fund buying in soybeans since the week of May 7th.

 

  • In soy products, managed money traders were buyers of 28,029 contracts of soybean meal, and were also buyers of 10,836 contracts of soybean oil; this makes them now net-short 69,600 contracts of meal, and net-long 40,959 contracts of oil.

 

  • Also out Friday afternoon was the USDA's monthly Cattle on Feed report, which showed the US feedlot herd on April 1 at 11.638 mil head; placements in the month of March totaled 1.841 mil head, and marketings in the month totaled 1.725 mil head. To view the full report, please click here.

 

  • The US Trade Representative's office late last week announced a phased approach to the proposed port fees on Chinses vessels, which appeared to be a win for US ag; the announcement, in Leman's terms, indicated fees of $50/net ton would begin on October 14th, and that these fees would increase over time. The announcement also indicated there would be exemptions for bulk products, which is what was hoped for by US ag lobbies.

 

  • Data out of China shows stocks of imported soybeans at its ports have reached the lowest levels in nearly three years as of Monday at just 5.6 million tons. March imports were the lowest in more than 10 years due to harvest delays in Brazil and new trade restrictions with the US, but officials see imports rebounding to more normal levels in April. Other March import data for China showed corn imports in the month down more than 95% from last year at just 80,000 tons, while wheat imports were seen nearly 90% lower from last year at just 190,000 tons.

 

  • In Russia, officials say roughly 90% of the country's winter crops are in good or satisfactory condition as of late last week, which is better than reports from late last year that nearly 40% of the crop was in poor condition. Separately, other data shows grain exports by sea out of Russia in March were down nearly 60% from last year at just 2.3 million tons, though cumulative seaborn exports in the current marketing year are still up around 10% on the year at just over 40 million tons.

 

  • USDA data shows barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending April 12th were up more than 53% on the week to 562k tons; corn shipments in the week were up 71% at 378k tons, and soybean shipments were up 47% at 185k tons. STL barge rates were down 28 cents/short ton on the week to $15.84/short ton.

 

  • Investors and economists are beginning to become more weary of Trump's trade policies, saying that tariff levels that are generally above what was expected have the potential to significantly increase inflation in the short and medium term. There are also concerns regarding the President's relationship with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and what may happen on that front, as Trump has continued to voice his desire for Powell's removal. Otherwise, there hasn't been a lot specifically new on the tariff front in the last 72 hours.

 

  • Relatedly, Vice President JD Vance will be in India for four days this week to hold talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi over trade deals with the US, as the Asian country looks to shore up agreements to avoid further tariffs from President Trump.

 

  • In news mostly unrelated to the markets, Pope Francis passed away over the weekend, just days after making his first public appearance since battling an episode of double pneumonia. He was 88, and was the first Latin American leader of the Roman Catholic Church.

 

  • Satellite data for the US over the last 72 hours shows the heaviest rainfall amounts of 2-4.5" were seen through a fairly narrow band in TX/OK/MO, while the rest of the southwestern Corn Belt saw a more general 0.5-1.5"; the eastern Corn Belt also saw measurable precip over the weekend, but the northwest (the Dakota's, W NE, W MN) missed out and were largely dry. Western KS was also dry, but the eastern 2/3's of the state saw rains ranging anywhere from a couple tenths to an inch or two in the east.

 

  • Forecasts for this week have additional light rains for the eastern third of the country through the day today, with light/spotty precip potential then seen for most of the Midwest the rest of the week. Generally speaking, there will be more sunshine than clouds for most areas, and it will also be hard to predict exact rainfall amounts/locations amid convective thunderstorm activity. Following the somewhat disappointing totals over the weekend, our lean would be to the lower end of the 1-3" that the EU model is calling for over the next week.