AM Comments April 15 2025
Good morning. We're seeing mixed markets across the commodity space to start Tuesday's trading session, with the outside macro environment experiencing a fair bit of calmness to start the day for what seems like the first time in forever. Whether traders are becoming more comfortable with the current tariff situation or simply leaving their machines off this week due to the Good Friday/Easter holiday in another couple days is unknown at this time, but the decline in volatility over the last 24 hours is notable. That said, do not mistake this as some sort of 'all clear' signal, as the US-China trade war will not just all of a sudden come to an end and headline risk from the situation remains very real. Corn futures to start Tuesday trade are 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are 6-9 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is down 2-3 cents. Products are lower, soybean meal is down $3-4/ton, and soybean oil is down 20-30 points. Outside markets are quiet/mixed, crude oil futures are down 40-50 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 140 points, and the US$ index is up 10-15 points; the S&P500 is down 10 points and the NASDAQ is down 50 points. Gold futures are $5-10/oz higher.
Today's Reports: NOPA Monthly Soybean Crush; API Energy Stocks
- Yesterday afternoon's weekly crop progress report from the USDA showed corn planting progress as of Sunday the 13th at 4% complete, while soybean planting was seen at 2% complete; IL is 1% done on corn and 2% done on beans, while IA is 2% done on corn and 1% done on beans. For wheat, spring wheat planting was seen at 7% complete, while the G/EX category on the winter wheat crop fell 1% to 47%. To view our crop progress maps, please click here.
- NOPA will release updated monthly soybean crush and bean oil stocks figures this morning for the month of March; the report is expected to show crush at 197.602 mil bu's, which would be a new record for the month and up nearly 11% from February. Bean oil stocks are seen at 1.617 bil lbs, which would be up 8% from February, but still down more than 12% from March of last year.
- The French Ag Ministry on Tuesday said in a statement that its farmers likely planted 4.63 mil hectares of soft-wheat in the 2025/26 season, which is up from their previous estimate of 4.57 mil and also up nearly 10% from last year. They also added that conditions were improving compared to the beginning of the year, where an early cold spell caused crop stress.
- Similarly, sources in Ukraine say the development of early planted grain crops in the country has all but stopped following about a week of temperatures in the 10-20 degree F range, which also brought frost and more snowfall for a lot of the country's growing regions. However, the snow and rains in areas where it was warm enough also cause a net-boost in soil moisture, which is seen as beneficial following dry periods in May/June the last couple years.
- Argentina's government on Monday lifted currency controls on the Argentine peso, but the move is not expected to immediately spur increased farmer selling according to local sources who are familiar with the situation due to ongoing harvest delays and this weekend's Easter holiday. Ag Ministry data as of April 2nd shows farmer selling this year has been at the slowest rate in the last 10 years. Said one Rosario analyst, "Producers are more focused on harvesting than on the exchange rate, which they already know will be above Friday's level."
- Speaking at an industry event in Sao Paulo, Brazil on Monday, oilseed group Abiove's director of economics and regulations said that declining vegetable oil prices had now made it feasible for the Brazilian government to go ahead with plans to raise the country's mandatory biodiesel blend rate from 14% to 15%, which is a move that was originally paused in February due to ongoing inflation and rising food costs. The director added that all the necessary infrastructure was already in place, and said his group hoped a government decision was made "as quickly as possible."
- The Trump administration late on Monday announced probes into imports of semiconductors and pharmaceuticals that will be conducted by the Commerce Department, in what appears to be a precursor to tariffs being reapplied to these products after being lifted over the weekend. In response, the Chinese instructed airline companies to halt deliveries of Boeing jets. Trump on Monday also talked about possible reprieves for US automakers, adding that they needed time to switch parts production to the US, but there has been no official announcement on this as of this morning.
- The International Energy Agency, along with OPEC, slashed global oil demand forecasts for both this year and next year on Tuesday, with both groups citing ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties as reason for the cuts. The IEA said they now see demand in 2025 at just 730k bbls/day (compared to 1.03 mil previously), while demand in 2026 is seen dropping to 690k bbls/day.
- US weather forecasts overnight increased the area in the mid-south that's expected to see heavier rainfall the end of this week and into next, but models are continuing to show significant differences in their solution for the southwest and the hard red wheat belt; for example, the EU's 0z run this morning shows western KS picking up 1-2" of rainfall between now and Monday, but the GFS in the same time period shows just trace amounts to a couple tenths.
- Week two forecasts continue to show above average precip chances for the majority of the eastern 2/3's of the US then into the last week of April, while there continues to be little shift in the extended range temperature outlook. Cooler air aloft in the Canadian Prairies will keep brief cold intrusions possible for the northern Plains over the next 10 days, but otherwise, models have been in good agreement on a generally above average forecast for the rest of the country beyond the weekend and into next week.
- Limited precip was observed throughout both Brazil and Argentina on Monday, though forecasts continue to show improving rainfall, especially for Brazil, beyond mid-week this week and into the weekend. Argentina sees light shower chances in the south/southeast of the country, but like we mentioned yesterday, dryness is mostly welcome at this point as it will allow for harvest progress to pick up. Temperatures trended back warmer for most of Brazil overnight, but amid good moisture forecasts, this is also not a huge concern.