AM Comments April 8 2025
Good morning. Markets appear to be off to a classic turn-around-Tuesday start this morning, as it appears at least early on that traders may see yesterday's action as a bit overdone. For ag specifically, soybeans look to be the upside leader on what we would assume is some form of bargain buying in front of what many hope will be conversations between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi, as opposed to just tit-for-tat tariff salvos that were exchanged over the weekend and into this week. If buyers can sustain the upward momentum through the day, we see logical initial upside targets at last week's gaps, which currently sit around 30-40 cents above price levels in both the May and the July contracts. Otherwise, yesterday was just another example on a growing list of them that today's trade is becoming more and more computer driven, which will do nothing but produce even wilder intraday swings and volatility. Corn futures to start Tuesday are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 6-10 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is up 4-5 cents. Products are higher, soybean meal is up $2/ton, and soybean oil is up 20-30 points. Outside markets are also mostly higher, crude oil futures are up 20-30 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 1,000 points, and the US$ index is down 5 points. The S&P500 is up 110 points and the NASDAQ is up 360 points; gold futures up $50/oz. Of note, all 6 of these markets are currently trading inside of yesterday's ranges.
Today's Reports: API Energy Stocks
- In the first weekly crop progress update of the 2025 growing season, the USDA pegged corn planting progress at 2%, which matched trade expectations and was 1% behind last year. TX was the furthest state along at 59%, while NC and MO both are 6% done and KS is 4% done. A soybean planting progress figure is expected next week, but will likely also be similarly low.
- Winter wheat conditions in the g/ex category were seen at 48%, which trails last year's 56% but was slightly ahead of trade expectations. The TX crop was rated 26% g/ex, OK was rated 42%, KS was rated 51%, and CO was rated 63%. Spring wheat planting was seen at 3%, which matches both last year and the five-year average. To view our crop progress maps, please click here.
- Soybean harvest in Brazil continues to chug along, with private group AgRural on Monday estimating that 87% of the crop had been gathered, while Safras y Mercado released a separate report showing the same number. The country's national crop agency Conab last night pegged the pace at 85% complete, while below the other private groups, continues to be ahead of both last year and average.
- Operations at most ports in Argentina are expected to see a slowdown on Wednesday and Thursday this week, as spokespeople from the country's largest union, the CGT, have announced a national strike during the two day period. Details over the what the strike is about were not given, but if its following the suit of previous port/dock worker strikes recently, it likely has something to do with wages or safety or some combination of the two.
- Private analytics group Rusagrotrans said on Monday that they expect Russia to remain the world's leader in wheat exports in the 2024/25 season, despite a drop in shipments from the year prior due to falls in production. The group said they see exports this year hitting 40.8 mmt's, which compares to last year's record of 55.5 mmt's, and added that production increases in other global export markets helped play a role in their declining exports.
- There wasn't a ton of detail out of Trump's White House Meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Monday, with the two fielding questions in the Oval Office following the cancelation of a planned joint press conference. One of the biggest details from the talks was the US would be having communications with Iran regarding its nuclear program in the near future, which analysts saw as a step in the right direction as far as the broader situation in the Middle East is concerned.
- In response to yesterday's new tariff threats from President Trump, Chinese officials said they "will fight to the end", and refused to lay down to what they described as political black mail by the Trump admin. Otherwise, there are not a lot of new details surrounding the overall broader situation this morning, with nobody quite sure which of the alleged 70+ countries that have came to the negotiating table in recent days will be in the headlines the next.
- US weather remains a bit of a mixed bag, as most of the Corn Belt sees frost risk today and tomorrow before cooler air begins to be pushed back north into Canada. Temps in the east will still be mostly below normal then into the end of the week, but there is no additional risk of frost noted, with highs through most of the area expected to reach back into the 60's/70's by the first part of next week. 10-15 day maps show the neat then most lingering, as much of the country is expected to see above average warmth into the week of April 18th-23rd.
- Precip will continue to favor the northern and eastern parts of the US over the next 5-10 days, as an expanded area in the southwestern US stays dry and most of the Corn Belt sees just limited precip into next week. Week two forecasts are still showing a strip through the southwest where wetter than normal conditions are expected, but otherwise, the rest of the country looks to see no more than average precip over the next two weeks.
- Not a lot new again this morning on the weather pattern in South America; generally speaking, rains will continue to be light/scattered for the most part through most of both Brazil and Argentina for another week, while week two maps into the back half of the month then show improving rainfall chances after another 5-10 days beyond here. It will be critical that these rains develop as forecast, or the board will again begin to add weather premium.