PM Comments March 31 2025
Good afternoon. Ag markets closed mixed on Monday following what was one of the more uneventful March seeding intentions/quarterly stocks days on record. That the trade nailed corn and soybean stocks figures in their estimates to within a few million bushels, and also largely nailed the acreage estimates that have been talked about for several weeks now, produced limited excitement following 11am central time, with all eyes now on Wednesday's 'Liberation Day'.
CK was 4 cents higher to start the week, and closed at 4.57 and 1/4. CN was up 3 and 1/4 at 4.63 and 1/4. SK closed at 10.14 and 3/4, down 8 and 1/4. SN finished at 10.28 and 1/4, down 9 cents. WK closed at 5.37, up 8 and 3/4. Products were lower, May soybean meal closed at 292.70, down 80 cents/ton, and May soybean oil closed at 44.89, down 27 points. Cattle markets were lower to start the week, April live cattle closed at 207.80, down $1.02, and April feeders closed at 286.45, down 47 cents; April hogs were up $1.02 at 87.72. Outside markets are mostly higher but have been choppy throughout the day; crude oil futures are up $2.10-2.20/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 370 points, and the US$ index is up 15-20 points. The S&P500 is up 20 points, and the NASDAQ is down 40 points; gold futures are around $40/oz higher, with the June contract making new highs at 3,162.0. Outside day higher for crude oil futures, while the S&P and the NASDAQ each made new lows for the moves.
Spreads had an active start to the week, with corn spreads finishing Monday unchanged to 4 and 3/4 cents higher, and soybean spreads finishing a penny and a half higher to 5 cents lower. CK/CN was 3/4 of a cent higher at -6, and SK/SN closed at -13 and 1/2, also up 3/4 of a cent.
For the month of March: May corn was down 12 and 1/4 cents; July corn was down 8 and 1/4 cents; May soybeans were down 11 cents; July soybeans were down 8 and 3/4 cents; May Chicago wheat was up 5 and 3/4 cents; May soybean meal was up $1.50/ton; and May soybean oil was down 1.83 cents/lb.
Like we mentioned at the top, there was not a lot of surprise in today's NASS stocks or seeding intentions numbers. Starting with the figures themselves, NASS reported that US farmers this year were planning on planting 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres. At the state level, the biggest increases from an area standpoint (not a %) came from generally the western Corn Belt, where Iowa expects to be up 600k acres from last year, Nebraska looks to be up 550k acres, and South Dakota expects to be up 400k. Only Ohio and Pennsylvania are expected to see declines from last year, with Ohio expected to be down about 150k acres and Pennsylvania expected to be down just 20k acres. US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024. The breakdown of where these stocks were being held, however, was not similar to last year; data showed that on-farm stocks this year totaled just 4.5 billion bu's, which was down more than 11% from last year, while off-farm stocks were inversely up more than 11% from last year at 3.7 billion bu's.
Flipping to the soybean side, NASS said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for. Again looking at the state level, the decreases were a little more widespread; Iowa is expected to see the biggest drop, with expectations showing a decline in 450k acres, while Minnesota and North Dakota are each expected to drop 400k acres, South Dakota is expected to drop 350k acres, and Illinois and Nebraska are each expected to drop 300k acres. Ohio is expected to plant 50k more acres, and North Carolina is expected to plant 70k more acres. Of note, this was the second lowest March intentions figure of the last 10 years, ahead of only 2016's estimate of 82.236 million acres. March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024. On-farm stocks were down just over 6% from last year at 876.5 million bu's, while off-farm stocks were up 13.3% at 1.03 billion bu's. If there was a surprise in today's data, one could argue it was this; most assumed that farmers sold corn and held on to soybeans following harvest this year, but this data would prove that to only be half true, as it seems the farmer cut ties with a significant amount of each crop over the past few months.
Wheat numbers were actually arguably the most exciting of the bunch, as planted area estimates came in more than a million acres lower than the average trade guess at 45.35 million; this would be down 1.6% from last year, and aside from 2020's estimate of 44.66 million, is the lowest March estimate of the last 20 years. Of note, 2020's low water estimate also produced a small final number that year, when wheat acres totaled just 44.45 million acres. Like the other crops, quarterly stocks were close to expectations at 1.237 billion bushels, which compares to 1.089 billion bushels last year. Stocks in all locations were seen higher year/year, with on-farm stocks up 13% at 307.1 mil bu's, and off-farm stocks up 14% at 929.8 mil bu's.
We know it was hurry up and wait all month for this data, but the fundamental picture in the grain markets looks almost exactly the same today as it did yesterday, with Mother Nature now being in control of what numbers the trade might see in the June acreage update. Remember, in 2020 final corn acres were down more than 6 million from the March intentions report and in 2019, final acres were down more than 3 million; a big planted acre number today does not guarantee burdensome corn supplies 6-8 months from now. Our final thought/observation from the report is that total principal crop acres in 2025 are expected to be down nearly 0.5% from last year at 309.9 million, which if accurate, would be the lowest combined figure in at least the last 10 years and presumably reflects what is expected to be a worsening farm economy in 2025.
As it pertains to Wednesday's tariffs, there wasn't a ton of new headlines on Monday, but White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, in answering questions to reporters, indicated that Trump would have details of the tariffs at a Rose Garden event on Wednesday, adding that any country that had treated the US unfairly should expect to receive some kind of new tariff. As it pertains specifically to agriculture, Leavitt indicated that there were no exemptions for farmers planned at this time in response to a question, despite ideas over the past weeks that this could be a possibility.
US weather news coming out of the weekend will show mostly a continuation of last week's pattern for the Midwest through the week this week, but then shows signs of a shift beyond here as ridging returns to the west and allows for a cooler/drier pattern to emerge in the east into April 15th. In this case, cool does not necessarily mean cold, as temps will still be average to slightly above average after dropping off a little more in the 5-10 day period, but just won't be as far above average has been seen in recent days/weeks through March. That being said, keep in mind we often refer to anomaly maps when referring to temperature, and as the calendar goes through April, average daily temps increase. Week two precip maps have also shifted notably drier in the last couple days, with only the far southeast expected to see above average precip between April 8th and 14th.
Forecasts for South America show a mostly dry outlook across Argentina for the next week, while most of Brazil's growing regions expect to continue seeing decent rains. Areas of south-central Brazil will be short-changed in some places, but more steady rains are forecast both to the north and to the south; areas to the northeast are also expected to be drier, but this area is not as heavy in ag production as those further to the south and west. Temperature outlooks for the next week are little changed, and continue to show much below average air temps throughout the whole of Argentina, while far southern Brazil will also be in this cooler pattern, but areas to the north will remain mostly above average.