AM Comments March 31 2025

Posted on Mar 31 at 07:08

 

Good morning. And welcome (finally) to the much anticipated US spring seeding intentions day. Corn and soybean futures are higher in improving volume to kick off the week, with beans and meal so far being the overnight up-side leaders and the grains being the followers on not a ton of new news over the last 72 hours. Attention in the ag space this morning will be almost entirely on the 11am central time data dump, which along with acreage data for the coming season, will also include updated quarterly stocks figures. Whether or not NASS gives traders any surprises will largely determine price direction for the the first half of the week, with Wednesday's tariff announcements then still lingering in the background for the end of the week. Buckle up, as volatility will likely be heightened over the next several days. Corn futures to start Monday are trading a half cent to a penny higher, soybean futures are trading 4-6 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is near unchanged. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up $2-3/ton, and soybean oil is down 5-10 points. Outside markets are also mixed, crude oil futures are up 20-30 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 280 points, and the US$ index is near unchanged. The S&P500 is down 50 points and the NASDAQ is down 260 points; gold futures are $30-40/oz higher, and again made new contract highs overnight.

 

Today's Reports: Weekly Export Inspections; Quarterly Grain Stocks; March Perspective Plantings

 

• Friday afternoon's commitment of traders report showed another week of selling across the ag space in the week ending March 25th; managed money traders were sellers of 32,663 contracts of corn (now net-long 74,607), sellers of 20,953 contracts of soybeans (now net-short 42,959 contracts), and were sellers of 11,919 contracts of Chicago wheat (now net-short 92,587 contracts). In soy products, funds were sellers of 23,037 contracts of meal (net-short 84,050), and sellers of 17,010 contracts of oil (net-short 44,618).

 

• According to a Reuters survey of analysts, traders are expecting this morning's spring seeding intentions report to show US farmers in 2025 intend to plant 94.4 mil acres of corn, 83.8 mil acres of soybeans, and 46.5 mil acres of wheat. Quarterly stocks figures are expected to show US corn stocks as of March 1 at 8.151 bil bu's, soybean stocks at 1.901 bil bu's, and wheat stocks at 1.215 bil bu's.

 

• In the latest in a string of moves to try and improve domestic food security, China announced over the weekend that it was planning on developing nearly 200 million acres of "high-standard" farmland by 2030, and added that it was also striving to turn all eligible "permanent basic farmland" into high-standard farmland in an additional five years by 2035.

 

• Giving an annual update on Friday last week, spokespeople for US crusher South Dakota Soybean Processors LLC said that tariffs that are set to go into effect later this week could potentially hinder the pace of soybean meal and oil exports, which have recently been at record levels. The group added that following a more than 20% decline in revenue in 2024 that they were optimistic the market would adjust and respond better this year than it did last year.

 

• Ukraine's Farm Ministry on Monday said that they had approved plans to develop irrigation capabilities in the farm sector, with a goal of increasing irrigated area to 235,000 hectares by 2030, and then to 750,000 hectares by 2050; last year, Ukraine harvested grain from about 130k ha's of irrigated land. Government sources say the plan could increases yields of major crops like corn, wheat, soybeans and sunflowers by more than 90%, which will allow Ukraine to remain a major global food supplier.

 

• According to shipping data, Chinese imports of Brazilian soybeans in Q1 as of March 25th totaled 17.7 mmt's, while total Brazilian loadings in the period totaled 22.8 mmt's, which are both new records despite harvest delays and supply bottlenecks that have effected shipments over the past 4-6 weeks. Sources say advanced purchases made by the end of 2024 were up more than 7 mmt's from the previous year, which likely reflects that the Chinese were already preparing for another trade war.

 

• According to weekly data published by the USDA, federally inspected beef production in the week ending March 29th totaled 529 mil lbs, which was up 8.6% from last week; pork production in the week at 536 mil lbs was up 2.5% on the week. YTD (year-to-date) beef production is now seen down 1.7% from last year at 6.35 bil lbs, while YTD pork production is down 3.4% at 6.82 bil lbs.

 

• President Trump over the weekend had a more hostile tone towards Russian President Vladimir Putin than has been used in recent days/weeks, as the US leader described being "pissed off" to reporters aboard Air Force One following comments by Putin that the UN should install a temporary government in Ukraine overseen by the US due to Ukrainian President Zelensky's "illegitimacy" as a leader. Trump later walked back the comments, adding that he thought a deal would still get done, but mentioned the possibility of secondary tariffs on Russia should Putin continue to hinder progress at peace.

 

• Stock index futures and equity markets are continuing to trade in a 'risk-off' mode this morning, as broader inflationary fears continue to grip markets. Trump told reporters that Wednesday's announcement would include "all nations", which seemed to contradict comments by white House Economic Advisor Hassett last week that indicated possibly just 10-15 nations would be under the initial salvo.

 

• Further speaking about 'Liberation Day', which Trump has labeled Wednesday's happenings, the US President said he "couldn't care less" when asked about automakers hiking prices as a result of his tariffs. Sources are indicating that the US is engaged in negotiations involving several countries, including Canada and Mexico on a re-worked USMCA agreement, but there had been no deals struck as of this writing this morning.

 

• Following good weekend rains in the south/southeast of the country, Argentina expects to see drier conditions this week as the forecast shows just light precip potential in the northern parts of the country through the next 5 days. Further north in Brazil, northern growing regions look to again see generally drier conditions this week, while areas in the south/south-central part of the country see continued precip potential. Not a lot of change temperature-wise, as Argentina will still be cool over the next week while Brazil stays mostly above average.

 

• Satellite data for the US shows rainfall exceeding 10" in a small area of far southern TX going back to the end of last week, while other areas along the Gulf Coast picked up anywhere from 1-3" generally; further north in the Ag Belt, precip was more spotty, with the best totals of 2-4" seen across the northern tier, while central areas received a more scattered 0.1-1". On the snowfall side, 72-hour satellite maps show fairly decent accumulation of 4-8" across parts of NE/SD and also northern WI.

 

• Forecasts for the Midwest show mostly drier conditions today and tomorrow, before another storm system looks to bear down on the eastern US Wednesday into Thursday; another system then brings rainfall to the south/southeast the end of this week and into the weekend, with total precip between now and 7am central time a week from now estimated in a range of 1-6" through a fairly wide spread area from AR to OH. Beyond here, week two forecasts have trended drier over the weekend, but this solution will need to be seen for a few days to produce any sort confidence.