AM Comments March 28 2025
Good morning. Happy Friday. Ag markets are in the red this morning, with corn and wheat following through with more selling and the soy complex correcting a bit of yesterday's gains. We've talked about it all week, but it remains that the broad majority of trader focus is on Monday's seeding intentions and quarterly stocks report, and then also on the ensuing tariff announcements due at mid-week. Lingering in the background also is the advancing calendar, as spring planting season in the US is now just weeks away in some places which will bring about a whole new set of fundamental concerns for traders to sink their teeth into. That said, we continue to stress not getting complacent and would encourage you whether you're a producer, elevator, end user, or otherwise, to have a plan in place should the market break out of its current range in neither direction. Corn futures this morning are trading 3-5 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 3-4 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is down 7-9 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around $2/ton, and soybean oil is up another 10-15 points. Outside markets are again mixed/quiet, crude oil futures are up 5-10 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 50 points, and the US$ index is up 10 points. The S&P500 is down 10 points, and the NASDAQ is down 60 points; gold futures are up another $20/oz and again made new contract highs overnight.
Today's Reports: Monthly Personal Spending; Monthly PCE; CFTC Commitment of Traders
- For Monday's March seeding intentions report, which is due out at 11am central time, the trade is expecting corn acres to come in at 94.4 million, soybean acres at 83.8 million, and all wheat acres at 46.48 million. In the last 10 years, the March 31st figure has only ended up larger than the final USDA number twice in corn and three times in soybeans. The quarterly stocks report, released simultaneously on Monday, is expected to show March 1 corn stocks at 8.151 bil bu's, and is expected to show March 1 soybean stocks at 1.901 bil bu's.
- The USDA released its quarterly hogs and pigs report after the market closed yesterday afternoon, which showed the US hog herd as of March 1 at 74.512 mil head, compared to 74.9 mil in December and 74.7 mil on March 1 last year. Breeding inventory was down about 0.6% from last year at 5.980 mil head, while market hog inventory was down about 0.2% from last year at 68.532 mil head. To view the full report, please click here.
- Argentina's weekly crop progress update from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, released yesterday afternoon also, showed corn harvest in the country has continued to advance over the past week, reaching 19.2% complete as of Wednesday. Conditions in the good/excellent category decreased by 2% on the week to 74%, which is similar to last year's 75% reading on the same date. Soybean conditions held steady on the week at 75% in the good/excellent category.
- Staying in South America, private Brazilian ag consultancy AgroConsult sees soybean production in the country at 172.1 mmt's for the current season, which is up just under 1 mmt from their February estimate and also above both the USDA and Conab. The group said the increases were based on higher adjustments to planted area, which they now see up just over 2% from last year at 47.8 mil ha's. Lastly, exports were also seen slightly higher from last month at 106.3 mmt's.
- In its first estimates for the 2025/26 season, the EU Commission estimated total grain production at 280.7 mmt's, which would be up roughly 10% from 2024/25's total, and also nearly 3% above the recent five-year average. Soft wheat production is seen increasing by 13% to 126.5 mmt's, while corn production is seen increasing by 10% to 65.0 mmt's.
- Barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending March 22nd totaled 670k tons according to data from the USDA, which was down just over 9% from the week prior; corn shipments at 402k tons were down 9.7% on the week , and soybean shipments at 231k tons were up 1.3% on the week. STL barge freight rates were up 36 cents/short ton to $18.03/ short ton.
- The equity world has all eyes on next week's tariff announcements heading into the weekend on Friday, with money managers paring back risk and preparing for a likely significant increase in volatility in the days ahead. Otherwise, Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted a meeting with global business leaders, while the US has proposed a new rendition of the minerals deal that is still in limbo with Ukraine.
- Weather forecasts for South America going into the weekend remain little changed, and continue to show good precip potential throughout southern and eastern growing regions in Argentina, while the majority of Brazil's growing regions, especially in the east, will see more spotty precip. Temperatures through next week look to remain mostly above average throughout Brazil, and mostly below average throughout Argentina.
- US forecasts see rains continuing to fall in south TX and areas along the Gulf over the next few days, with the heaviest totals seen in a slightly lesser range than yesterday of 3-5". The rest of the eastern half of the US is also expected to receive precip through the weekend, but exact locations and amounts have been changing with each model run, and will be difficult to forecast. Generally speaking, the northern tier of WI/MI and the Great Lakes region will see the next heaviest precip potential, while the eastern Corn Belt is expected to see anywhere from a half inch to 2 inches. Temperatures will remain mostly above average into next week.
- Have a good weekend! Expect some early-spring market fireworks next week, as this week's proverbial 'calm before the storm' likely comes to a head at some point in the next few sessions, and looks to be replaced with new money flows and summer positioning.