AM Comments March 27 2025
Good morning. More of the same at the CBOT to start Thursday, as ag markets are once again quiet in light volume coming out of the overnight trading session. New auto tariff announcements by President Trump late in the day yesterday caused a bit of anxiety in the financial markets to start last night, but even they are back closer to the median for the most part this morning as the choppy, back-and-forth price action of the past several days remains present throughout most markets. We remain of the opinion that even once Monday's USDA stocks and seeding data is received, volume won't return to the space in earnest until tariff announcements have been made by mid-week due to the increasingly large amount of spec traders and computer programs that are present in the space these days. Corn futures to start Thursday are trading either side of unchanged, soybean futures are trading 4-5 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is up 1-2 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton, and soybean oil is up 80-90 points. Outside markets are quiet/lower, crude oil futures are down 10-15 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 40 points, and the US$ index is down about 20 points. The S&P500 is down 5 points, and the NASDAQ is down 50 points; gold futures are up around $40/oz, and have again made new contract highs.
Today's Reports: Weekly Export Sales; Final Q4 GDP; Q4 PCE; Weekly Jobless Claims; Quarterly Hogs and Pigs
- This morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending March 20th is expected to show corn sales for the week in a range of 600k to 1.6 mil mt's, soybean sales in a range of 300k to 900k mt's, and wheat sales in a range of 0 to 550k mt's. 2025/26 wheat sales are seen between 100k and 300k mt's, while 2025/26 corn is seen between 0 and 100k mt's and 2025/26 soybeans are seen between 0 and 50k mt's.
- The USDA is scheduled to release its quarterly hogs and pigs report at 2pm central time this afternoon; the report is expected to show US hog inventory as of March 1 at 75.44 mil head, which would be up a little more than 1% from Q1 last year, and also the highest March figure in the last five years. Breeding inventory is seen increasing slightly to 6.029 mil head, while the number of market hogs is seen increasing to 69.28 mil head.
- Preliminary data from Brazilian export group ANEC shows soybean exports out of the country are likely to hit a record for the month of March, with the group predicting the final total for the month between 15 and 16 mmt's roughly; this compares to 13.5 mmt's exported in March of 2024. The group added that though lineup data would point to a record figure, slow loadings due to the increased traffic could possibly marginally slow the export pace.
- Spokespeople for North American fertilizer company Nutrien on Wednesday said that they see little impact on the global fertilizer market in 2025 from a potential revival of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, adding that "Russian fertilizer exports have largely adapted to the restrictions that were in place and are already operating near full capacity."
- Members from Brazil's Ag Ministry have sent formal requests to Mexico's sanitary authority seeking to increase the number of meat plants that are allowed to export pork to Mexico amid potential increasing tariffs from the US. Currently, there are only seven facilities in one Brazilian state that are allowed to export pork to Mexico, which is also the US's number one pork export market.
- Data from Ukraine's Ag Ministry shows total grain exports in the current marketing year have reached 32.2 mmt's, which is down nearly 6% from the same period last year. Wheat exports at 12.9 mmt's were down just over 4%, while corn exports at 16.6 mmt's were down about 10%. Ukraine's crop year runs through May 31st.
- Trump's auto tariff announcement yesterday afternoon was mostly short, sweet, and to the point, with the President announcing a 25% levy on all auto imports coming into the US of 25% beginning on April 3rd. The President also threatened new duties that would be "far larger than currently planned" on the EU and Canada should they form agreements that would cause economic harm to the US. Other reciprocal measures, as far as we know, are still scheduled to go into affect one day earlier on April 2nd.
- A pocket in far southern Argentina saw fairly heavy rainfall over the last 24 hours of more than 2", while the rest of the country in the central and northern regions was mostly dry. Scattered precip also continued to be noted in Brazil, though totals generally didn't exceed 0.5" for the most part. Forecasts show best rains through the end of the week and into the weekend in northeast Argentina/southwest Brazil, while a lot of Brazil's growing areas in the east will likely again return to a slightly drier pattern.
- Not a lot new for US weather overnight, as Thursday's focus will be on the south TX area where potentially severe storms are expected to provide strong winds and heavy rainfall to the area; flash flood risk is possible, with last night's EU precip run showing the potential for more than 7" of rainfall in a fairly small area between now and 1pm central time on Friday. Models are also wetter into next week, and show a majority of the Midwest, especially the southern part, receiving upwards of 2-4" of accumulated rainfall by next Friday.