AM Comments March 24 2025
Good morning. Friday's quiet/lower trade at the CBOT has spilled over into Monday, as the last full week of trading in March has started with all three of the major crop markets in the red. Wheat's been the biggest loser so far on a percentage basis through the overnight session, but a lack of volume has been the case in all three as traders are continuing to wait for the NASS spring seeding data this is due out one week from today. We mentioned this several times last week, but it remains the case that until that report on Monday and the tariff deadline next Wednesday both have passed, trade will remain constrained and choppy. Nobody in the spec community wants to get caught being positioned too heavy in the wrong direction, while the US producer is sold up on both corn and soybeans, and will only do more hedging on a significant basis push or board rally; this means managed money likely continues to control much of the broader market trend this week. Corn futures to start Monday are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 3-5 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat markets is down 6-8 cents. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around $2/ton, and soybean oil is down 15 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up 40-50 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 380 points, and the US$ index is down 5-10 points. The S&P500 is up 70 points, and the NASDAQ is up 300 points; gold futures are $10-15/oz higher.
Today's Reports: Weekly Export Inspections
- Friday's CFTC commitment of traders report showed managed money traders continued to be sellers of corn in the week ending March 18th, shedding an additional 39,270 contracts and dropping their net-long position to 107,270 contracts; they also sold 6,462 contracts of soybeans (now net-short 22,005 contracts), and 3,256 contracts of Chicago wheat (now net-short 80,668 contracts). In soy products, funds sold 13,756 contracts of soybean oil (now net-short 27,609), but bought 11,015 contracts of soybean meal (net-short 61,013).
- Also out Friday afternoon was the USDA's cattle on feed report for March, which showed the March 1 US feedlot herd at 11.577 mil head, down about 2% from last year; placements in February were seen down 18% from a year ago at 1.554 mil head, while marketings were down 9% from a year ago at 1.633 mil head. To view the full report, please click here.
- The USDA's ag attaché to both Brazil and Mexico released estimates for 2025/26 production in both countries late last week. Starting in Brazil, USDA estimated 2025/26 soybean production at 173 mmt's on an increase of about a million hectares in planted areal; in Mexico, the post estimated corn production in the 2025/26 season to be up about 3% from the current season at 24.5 mmt's, which would drop imports a like 3% to 24.8 mmt's.
- According to Ukraine's Ag Ministry, seeding of the country's spring grain crops has reached about 250,400 hectares, which is about 18% ahead of the pace seen through the same date last year. Overall spring wheat area is forecast to increase by nearly 30% from last year to 222,800 ha's on steady increases in demand.
- China's state grain buyer Sinograin on Tuesday is set to auction 160,000 mt's of soybeans from its reserves according to sources familiar, which would be the first such sale in nearly two months, and comes as recent supply tightness has caused some soy processors to halt production. Deliveries from the auction are scheduled to occur between April 1 and May 15, which would be a similar time period to when new crop imports from Brazil should begin flowing steadily into the country.
- Talks between US and Russian officials are ongoing in Saudi Arabia this morning regarding a possible ceasefire for the war in Ukraine; the talks come just a day after a team from the US met with Ukraine's Defense Minister over the same topic, which according to sources familiar was "productive and focused." Despite the talks, both Russia and Ukraine continue to trade missile strikes with each other, which would seemingly make any ceasefire seem rather far-off still.
- New Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney over the weekend announced that a snap election would be held on April 28th, in a move that was widely expected even before the former head of both the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada was announced to be the country's next Prime Minister. Carney is looking to use a recent rebound in his Liberal party's popularity to secure a mandate to deal with what he calls existential threats from the US and President Donald Trump.
- South American rainfall over the weekend was plentiful throughout the bulk of both Brazil and Argentina, as totals through both country's growing regions ranged from 0.5" to 2.5", with totals in Argentina generally being slightly greater than those seen in Brazil. Temperatures remained warm in Brazil and were slightly above average, though cooler than normal air continued to be seen throughout much of Argentina.
- In the US, the eastern/southeastern part of the Midwest picked up light/scattered precip ranging from trace amounts to about a half inch, with some locally heavier areas noted. The far northern Midwest picked up additional snowfall, but this was generally confined to the northern parts of ND, MN, and WI, with totals ranging from 1-5". Temperatures were mostly above average, especially in the west, while the east and northeast saw temps that were closer to average or a little below in some places.