AM Comments March 21 2025

Posted on Mar 21 at 06:36

Good morning. Happy Friday. Small trading ranges and light volume have been the theme so far to start Friday trading in Chicago, with all three of the major US field crops unable to break too far from the unchanged level through the night session and early in the day this morning. Barring some sort of tariff-related announcement from the Trump administration during the session today, we would expect today's closes to be equally choppy to the rest of the week, as the combo of March Madness and the opening days of spring likely limits attention on the marketplace past late morning today. Fresh fundamental news of importance and continues to be mostly absent, which will help contribute to the back and forth that we presume spills into next week. Corn and soybean futures to wrap up the week are both trading near unchanged, and the Chicago wheat market is up 1-2 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up 50 cents to a dollar/ton, and soybean oil is down 10-20 points. Outside markets are mixed/quiet also, crude oil futures are down around 30 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 120 points, and the US$ index is up 5-10 points. The S&P500 is down 10 points, and the NASDAQ is down 60 points. Gold futures are slightly lower and did not make new contract highs overnight.

 

Today's Reports: March Cattle on Feed; CFTC Commitment of Traders

 

  • The USDA is scheduled to release its March Cattle on Feed report at 2pm central time this afternoon; the report is expected to show the US feedlot herd as of March 1 at 11.637 mil head, or 98% of a year ago. If realized, this would be a new five-month low and also the lowest March reading since 2017. Placements in February are seen at 1.625 mil head and marketings are seen at 1.648 mil head.

 

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange's weekly crop update showed a 1 mmt reduction in their soybean production estimate to 48.6 mmt's, while corn production was unchanged at 49.0 mmt's. However, despite the production cut, the amount of crop in the g/ex category improved 6% on the week to 73%. Corn harvest advanced 5.5% on the week to 13.6%, which remains well ahead of both last year and the five year average.

 

  • According to the USDA's monthly livestock slaughter report, which was released yesterday afternoon, combined production of commercial and beef and pork in the month of February fell more than 13% from the month prior to 4.23 billion lbs; beef production was seen down nearly 15% on the month to 2.02 bil lbs, while pork production was seen down 12% at 2.2 bil lbs. The figures are also both down roughly 7% from February of 2024's figures.

 

  • Some of yesterday's pop in the ag space may have possibly been attributed to a news report that the EU has decided to delay proposed reciprocal tariffs on the US until April 13th, which according to a statement, "gives extra time for negotiations with our American partners." The bloc had originally planned to re-impose 2018 tariffs on a list of goods beginning April 1st, with a subsequent expansion of this list then planned for the 13th. New US tariffs from the US are currently set to go into effect on April 2nd.

 

  • The IGC (International Grains Council) said Thursday that they expect global grain stocks in the 2025/26 season to be similar to last year at 578 mil tons; the group sees production at 2.37 bil tons vs 2.31 bil last year, and sees consumption at 2.37 bil tons also vs 2.31 last year. These are the group's first estimates for the 2025/26 season.

 

  • Oilseed workers at plants belonging to global logistics conglomerate Vicentin in Argentina returned to work on Thursday following the group's scheduling of payments for wages that were overdue. Sources familiar say workers received 75% of what they were owed on Wednesday this week, and are expected to receive the other 25% on Wednesday next week, which prompted union SOEA to lift the strike. Said union secretary Martin Morales, "We are willing to work as long as we get paid."

 

  • Barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending March 15 totaled 738k tons according to a weekly report released by the USDA, which was nearly double the week prior; corn shipments on the week were up more than 80% at 445k tons, and soybean shipments were up more than 90% at 228k tons. STL barge rates were seen at $17.68/short ton, up 36 cents from the week prior.

 

  • The biggest news story from the outside world overnight was not necessarily market related, but indicated that Britain's Heathrow airport, ranked somewhere in the top five busiest airports in the world annually, would be shuttered on Friday due to an overnight fire at a nearby electrical substation that knocked out power to the airport. The fire also knocked out the airport's back-up power, with investigators unable to pinpoint the exact cause of the blaze at this point this morning. Spokespeople familiar did mention that foul play was not currently expected.

 

  • Rains are expected to return to Argentina over the weekend following several days of drier conditions this week; coverage will be a little spotty, but this morning, models are showing a pocket of potentially heavy precip in the south of the country and also another pocket in the north-central part, which should be of benefit. Brazil's growing regions in the south and south-central will also continue to see decent precip, with rains expected to continue through next week. Overnight temperature forecasts are unchanged, and continue to show above average warmth through most of Brazil, with cooler temps still forecast through Argentina.

 

  • The US Midwest will see about 24 hours of drier weather conditions through the day today, before light precip returns to the area tonight and into tomorrow; a larger system is still expected to then provide additional rain and snowfall through the day on Sunday. The best precip amounts through the weekend of a half inch to an inch will be seen in the south/mid-south, while the upper Midwest is expected to see a slightly less quarter inch to a half inch. Temperature-wise, the central US will be warm on Saturday with pockets of cooler air the east and west, with temps regressing towards the mean by Sunday into next week. The overall pattern stays warm, but there will continue to be intermittent spells of cooler weather.

 

  • Have a good weekend! And good luck with your March Madness brackets!