PM Comments March 19, 2025

Good afternoon,

 

CK closed Monday at $4.62, up 3 1/4 cents. CN was up 1 1/4c and closed at $4.69 1/4. SK closed at $10.08 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents. SN was down 5 cents at $10.21 1/2. WK finished at $5.635, down 1 1/2 cents. Products were mostly lower. May soybean meal closed at $297.70, down $2.20/ton, and May soybean oil closed at $42.36, down 18 points. Livestock markets were mixed. April live cattle closed at $206.825, up $1.45, April feeders closed at $286.725, up $2.175, and April hogs closed at $85.575 which was down on the day. Outside markets were higher today. The Dow Jones index is up 400 points, the S&P500 is up 63 points and the NASDAQ is up 256 points.

 

Corn spreads were firmer on the day with CK25/N25 finishing Wednesday's session firmer by 2c at -7 1/4. CK25/N25 finished the day at -6 1/4 which was over 3c firmer. CN25/U25 finished at +24. For soybeans, SK25/N25 finished the day a half-cent stronger at -13 1/4. New crop SX25/F26 finished half 3/4c wider at -12 3/4. The nearby Chicago wheat spread finished the day a half-cent firmer at -16 1/2 for WK25/N25.

 

A powerful storm system is working its way across the Midwest today bringing windy conditions and severe weather. The northwest side of the storm will bring late-season snow and the potential for blizzard conditions due to high winds. Severe storms are also expected for the Ohio Valley. The 7-day forecast shows some good chances for an inch or two of rain with the middle part of Illinois looking like it will miss out.

 

The Federal Open Market Committee (FMOC) concluded its meeting today. Officials again left interest rates alone but projected two cuts by the end of the year amid increasing economic uncertainty. Powell stated at his press conference that "the economy is strong, labor market conditions are solid, and inflation remains somewhat elevated".

 

The Weekly EIA report was mixed, coming in bearish against expectations for crude oil and gasoline and bullish for diesel. Ethanol production was up 4% week-on-week and stocks fell 3%.

 

NASS is reinstating county yield estimates for Crops. The county estimates reinstatement is effective for the 2024 crop season for the row crops (corn, cotton, peanuts, rice, sorghum, soybeans). County estimates for corn and soybeans will be released on May 6th, 2025 per NASS.

 

The US Trade Representative's (USTR) has proposed to impose fees on Chinese ship operators and Chinese-built ships. A source has said the costs to the U.S. shipping industry if the current proposal passes, would be "catastrophic." Another topic at the Grains Alliance conference held last week mentioned that, besides the financial burden, U.S. ports could see ships divert to Canada and Mexico to avoid the penalties.

 

The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has also been broken this week, leading to an escalation of force from the U.S. following the resumption of attacks by Yemen Houthi rebels through the Red Sea shipping region. This could also lead to increased sanctions on Iran.