PM Comments March 18 2025
Good afternoon,
CK closed Monday at $4.58 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents. May corn traded in a little over a 7c range today. CN was also down 2c to close at $4.68. SK closed at $10.12 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents. SN was down 2 3/4 cents at $10.26 1/2. WK finished at $5.65, down 3 1/2 cents. Products were mixed. May soybean meal closed at $299.99, down $4.40/ton, and May soybean oil closed at $42.54, up 44 points. Livestock markets were mixed. April live cattle closed at $205.375, up $0.35, April feeders closed at $284.55, up $0.35, and April hogs closed at $87.60 which was down on the day. Outside markets were lower today. Crude oil futures are down about 65 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 235 points, and the US dollar index is down 13 points. The S&P500 is down 54 points and the NASDAQ is down 299 points. Tesla was down almost 5% after Chinese EV rivals announced new fast chargers. NVIDIA was down almost 3%.
Corn spreads were weaker on the day while soybean spreads were even/firmer. CK25/N25 finished the day at -9 1/4 while spending the majority of the session at -9. CN25/U25 finished at +20 3/4 and was down to +19 mid-morning. For soybeans, SK25/N25 finished the day unchanged at -13 3/4. New crop SX25/F26 finished half a penny firmer at -12. Chicago wheat spreads continued to widen out with WK25/N25 finishing a half penny wider at -17.
S&P Global Commodity Insights projected on Tuesday that U.S. farmers would plant 94.3 million acres of corn in 2025, up 800,000 acres from its previous forecast released on January 21 and up 3.7 million acres from 2024, an S&P Global spokesperson said. The firm left its forecast of U.S. 2025 soybean plantings unchanged from January at 83.3 million acres, down 3.8 million acres from 2024. S&P also lowered its U.S. 2025 all-cotton plantings forecast to 10.2 million acres, down 250,000 acres from January and down nearly 1 million acres from last year.
Wheat futures had some follow-through from yesterday's gains but topped out at about 1045am and faded at the close. Chicago wheat was down 3-4c and Kansas City wheat finished the day up about a penny. There are still some concerns about the condition of the winter wheat crop out west after the dust storms that took place the past week. Additional high winds are projected to gust around 70 mph in the next couple of days in the Dodge City, KS area. A dust storm warning has been issued for SW Kansas.
USDA Economic Aid Applications Expected by Friday. Terrain’s John Newton reported in January that “corn, soybean, and wheat producers combined are expected to receive nearly $7.9 billion, or more than 80% of the economic support provided by Congress. Producers of other major crops such as cotton, sorghum, rice, and peanuts are expected to receive nearly 16% of the support at $1.6 billion.”
The Federal Open Market Committee (FMOC) will conclude the two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. A statement will be released at 1 pm on Wednesday and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to hold a press conference at 130pm. The market anticipates no rate changes to result from the meetings.
Petroleum prices climbed as geopolitical tensions rose earlier in the day, fueled by Israel resuming its attacks on Hamas in Gaza. Further support came from President Trump’s statement that the U.S. would continue striking Yemen’s Houthi militants until they stopped targeting Red Sea shipping. However, as the trading session progressed, energy prices lost momentum, reversed their gains, and slipped into negative territory. Both crude oil and RBOB gasoline were red this afternoon.
Trump administration will give trading partners a proposed US tariff rate based on their own tariff rates, non-tariff trade barriers, and other factors according to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. "On April 2, each country will receive a number that we believe represents their tariffs," Bessent said on Fox Business Network's "Mornings with Maria." "For some countries, it could be quite low, for some countries, it could be quite high."
President Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin this morning for an hour and a half about ending the war in Ukraine. A State Department spokesperson said Monday that "the ball is now in Russia's court" to accept a U.S.-proposed ceasefire deal that Ukraine agreed to last week. There remains uncertainty in the Black Sea region with some attacks on grain ports continuing to occur.