PM Comments March 17, 2025
Good afternoon. Grain prices were mixed today. Weather concerns raised wheat values today, which helped pull up corn. Beans finished slightly lower as early gains were erased after the NOPA crush report.
CK closed Monday at $4.61, up 2 1/2 cents. May corn finished within the 100 and 200-day moving averages. CN was also up 2 1/2 to close at $4.70. SK closed at $10.15 1/2, down 1/2 cent. SN was down 3/4 of a cent at $10.29 1/4. WK finished at $5.68 1/2, up 11 1/2 cents. Products were mixed. May soybean meal closed at 304.30, down $1.60/ton, and May soybean oil closed at $42.10, up 51 points. Livestock markets had another strong day. April live cattle closed at $205.02, up $1.85, April feeders closed at $284.62, up $2.65, and April hogs closed at $88.07, up $1.45. Outside markets are mixed. Crude oil futures are up 45-50 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 470 points, and the US$ index is down 300 points. The S&P500 is up 55 points and the NASDAQ is up 138 points. An inside day for gold futures. The DOW is coming off its worst weekly performance since March of 2023.
Spreads were mixed at the finish but they did spend most of the day weaker.. CK/CN closed at -9, which was unchanged, and SK/SN closed at -13 3/4, up 1/4 of a cent. WK/WN made a new contract low at -17 and 1/4 and closed at -16 1/2.
Wheat futures saw double digit gains today for all 3 classes on dry weather concerns in the U.S. plains. Nearby Chicago wheat closed at its highest level in just over two weeks. High winds were seen over the weekend through the southern plains, adding additional levels of concerns to already dry conditions. Weather concerns for wheat also remain in the Black Sea region and in China.
The South American weather forecast continues to look mostly the same. Dry conditions will dominate parts of Argentina, which will be welcome after the recent heavy rains. This should aid crop maturity and harvest progress. Brazil will be dry through the week, but the extended forecast offers better chances of rain. Brazil is estimated at 70% done with bean harvest. The U.S. weather forecast shows choppy temperatures this week, which is consistent with early March weather. There will be multiple chances of rain/snow throughout the week.
Corn inspections totaled 65.3 mbu. this morning. Mexico took 13.5 mbu. and Japan took 12.5 mbu. Total corn inspections now stand at 1.211 bbu. which is nearly 300 mbu. ahead of this time last year. After today, corn inspections need to average 46.9 mbu. to reach the USDA goal. Soybean inspections totaled 23.8 mbu. China accounted for 15.4 mbu. Total bean inspections now stand at 1.436 bbu., which is 120 mbu. ahead of last year. Bean inspections need to average 14.1 mbu. to meet the USDA target. Wheat inspections totaled 18.1 mbu. and need to average 20.9 to meet the current USDA target.
The NOPA crush report for February was released this morning. Soybean crush in February by NOPA members came out to 177.87 mbu. This was well below the average estimate of 185.2 mbu. Today's crush figure compares to 200.4 mbu. last month and 186.2 mbu. last year. Note: last year's figure did have an extra day due to leap year. Soyoil stocks at the end of February totaled 1.503 bln. llbs, markedly higher than the average estimate of 1.386 bln. lbs.
Tariff news was quiet to start the week. The grain trade will be watching for clarification on the tariff pauses with Canada and Mexico. The back and forth on tariffs with the EU is expected to continue. Reciprocal tariffs, potentially with multiple countries, are still expected during the first week of April. The FED will start its two-day meeting tomorrow. No changes are expected when the FED announces its decision on Wednesday afternoon. President Trump is expected to speak with Putin tomorrow in regard to the war.