PM Comments March 14 2025
Good afternoon. Happy Friday. Markets were choppy/mixed in declining volume to wrap up the week on Friday, as the summer-like warmth across much of the Midwest likely caused some trade desks to close a bit early today. While still another two weeks away, the end-of-month combo of NASS's seeding intentions report and new tariffs on April 2nd have already crept to the forefront of the trade, and will likely keep volatility elevated between now and then.
CK closed Friday at 4.58 1/2, down 6 and 3/4. CN was down 4 and 3/4 at 4.67 1/2. Both held Wednesday's lows. SK closed at 10.16, up 5 and 1/4. SN was up 5 cents at 10.30. WK finished at 5.57, down 5 and 1/2 cents. Inside day for WK. Products were mixed, May soybean meal closed at 305,90, down $1.20/ton, and May soybean oil closed at 41.59, up 31 points. Inside days for both meal and oil also. Livestock markets ended the week in the green, April live cattle closed at 203.17, up $1.12, April feeders closed at 281.20, up $1.22, and April hogs closed at 86.62, up $1.00. Inside day for live cattle and an outside day for April hogs. Outside markets are mixed/higher, crude oil futures are up 60-70 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 620 points, and the US$ index is down 10-15 points. The S&P500 is up 100 points and the NASDAQ is up 450 points. Inside day for crude oil futures, and gold futures also made new contract highs again.
Spreads were mostly lower to end the week; corn spreads were down a half cent to down 6 cents, and soybean spreads were up a quarter cent to down 3 and 1/2 cents. CK/CN closed at -9, down 2 cents, and SK/SN closed at -14, up 1/4 of a cent. WK/WN made a new contract low at -16 and 1/2 and closed at -16.
For the week: May corn was down 10 and 3/4 cents; July corn was down 8 and 1/4 cents; May soybeans were down 9 cents; July soybeans were down 8 and 3/4 cents; May Chicago wheat was up 5 and 3/4 cents; May soybean meal was up $1.50/ton; and May soybean oil was down 1.83.
USDA this morning to end the week announced a pair of daily sales flashes: private exporters reported the sales of 218,604 mt's of corn received in the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/25 marketing year, and also reported 20,000 mt's of soybean oil for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/25 marketing year. This marks the third separate 20,000 mt bean oil sale to unknown destinations during the month of March so far. Furthermore, AgResource Co. reported at mid-day today that cash rumors were circulating that additional sales were made this morning as a result of strengthening cash basis in South America.
Aside from CFTC commitment of traders data released after the close this afternoon, there really wasn't a lot of headline fundamental news going into the weekend. It appears likely that a pending government shutdown was averted following Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's support of the Republican funding bill that was passed by the House earlier this week. Speaking to reporters in D.C. earlier this morning, Schumer said, "As I announced yesterday, I will vote to keep the government open. I believe it is the best way to minimize the harm that the Trump administration will do to the American people." As he continued, Schumer added that a government shutdown would be an open door for DOGE to "shift into overdrive" and would give Trump and DOGE head Elon Musk the ability to determine who was considered essential, which would potentially give them more power to lay off additional federal workers. Though the continuing resolution is expected to pass to a final vote later this afternoon, there has been no official word on the vote as of this writing.
Previously mentioned commitment of traders data for the week ending March 11th showed another heavy week of selling by the funds in corn, though it was more isolated than last week as they were actually net buyers in both the soybeans and wheat. As of Tuesday, March 11th, managed money traders are now seen net-long 146,541 combined contracts of corn futures/options (-73,212 on the week), net-short 15,544 combined contracts of soybean futures/options (+19,943 on the week), and net-short 77,412 combined contracts of Chicago wheat futures/options (+4,987 on the week). In corn, this was the largest combined two week period of selling since the last week of February/first week of March in 2023. In soy products, funds are now seen net-short 72,027 contracts of soybean meal (+13,317 on the week), and net-short 13,852 contracts of soybean oil (-23,521 on the week). This is the first time funds have been net-short bean oil since the week of January 7th earlier this year.
Weather forecasts for Brazil going into the weekend have trended marginally drier in the very near term, but still see expanding moisture by the early part of next week. Further to the south in Argentina, most of the country is expected to be dry through the weekend and most of next week, but week two guidance continues to show a return of moisture by the last week of the month. Increasing heat will add stress here to areas that have missed out on recent rains, but otherwise, increases in soil moisture over the last couple weeks should keep damage minimal in the next 10-15 days. We mentioned it earlier this week but will continue reiterating that especially in the case of corn, production in both countries can still change drastically between now and May/June when the delayed safrinha crop will begin being harvested.
We've talked about it all week, but this evening's storm system through the Midwest and southeastern US continues to be the focus of the US forecast at least for another 24 hours or so, as high winds have already caused significant dust storms through parts of central Texas. Wind gusts could exceed 50-60 mph for a large area from Texas/Oklahoma through Missouri, Illinois and Indiana and then up into the Great Lakes region. From a precip standpoint, the heaviest rainfall totals are expected generally through Tennessee and Kentucky, where totals of 2-3" are possible; a broader 0.5" to 1" is expected for the rest of the eastern US generally speaking. As this system exits Sunday/Monday, the next one will be entering the western US, with the models in fairly good agreement on that system then providing additional rainfall/snow for the Midwest the middle of next week. There continues to be very little update to the temperature forecasts, as models have been in good agreement for days on a continued above average temperature forecast for the majority of the eastern 2/3's of the country into the end of the month; the West Coast/northwest will see continued cooler weather next week, but are seen warming in the week two period.
Have a good weekend! Enjoy the early season warmth, and stay safe if you happen to be doing fieldwork over the next few days!