AM Comments March 13 2025
Good morning. Turn-around-Thursday at the CBOT this morning as choppy trade is persisting for another session. Corn and soybean prices are higher on fresh production cuts in Argentina, though we assume should there be any new trade or tariff headlines today that they will quickly jump back to the front of the line in terms of importance to the market. Bigger picture price direction in the short term prior to the US spring planting window is largely dependent on global trade flows, with the absence of China in the world market continuing to be an added layer of bearishness on top of any new trade duties that are announced. Corn futures to start Thursday trade are up 1-3 cents, soybean futures are up 7-10 cents, and Chicago wheat futures are up 4-5 cents. Products are higher, soybean meal is up $4-6/ton, and soybean oil is up 20-30 points. Outside markets are mixed/lower, crude oil futures are down 30-40 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 70 points, and the US$ index is up around 20 points. The S&P500 is down 10 points and the NASDAQ is down 50 points.
Today's Reports: Conab March Supply and Demand; Weekly Export Sales; Weekly Jobless Claims; Monthly PPI
- According to the CME Group, deliveries for Thursday included 182 contracts of soybean meal, 34 contracts of soybean oil, 27 contracts of rice, 2 contracts of KC wheat, 40 contracts of soybeans, and 1 contract of Chicago wheat.
- This morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending March 6th is expected to show corn sales in a range of 725k - 1.4 mil mt's, soybean sales in a range of 275k - 700k mt's, and wheat sales in a range of 275k - 650k mt's; new crop 2025/26 sales are expected between 0 and 100k mt's for all three crops.
- Conab's March crop survey showed Brazilian soybean production at 167.370 mmt's, which was up slightly from their February estimate but still below both the USDA and the average trade guess. Total corn production was also increased slightly to 122.760 MMTs, while safrinha production was actually trimmed by about 0.5 mmt's to 95.516 mmt's. To view our Brazilian production maps, please click here.
- Argentina's Rosario Grains Exchange on Wednesday lowered their estimates of both corn and soybean production in the country; for soybeans, they adjusted their estimate lower by 1 mmt to 46.5 mmt's, and in corn, they trimmed 1.5 mmt's off their previous estimate to now 44.5 mmt's. These are well below the USDA's figures, which were pegged at 49 and 50 mmt's respectively on Tuesday.
- The Argentine oilseed workers strike that was talked about in yesterday's morning commentary was short lived, as government officials issued orders to suspend the strike just hours before it was set to begin. Workers for Vicentin had already begun striking at some ports the day prior though, and said they would continue. The government order calls for a 15-day negotiating period, which we assume begins Thursday.
- Reuters reported overnight that several trading firms see Chinese soybean imports in the second quarter of 2025 rebounding from Q1 numbers, as a pick up in Brazilian shipments is expected to bump imports in the period up to a record high of 31.3 mmt's; this would compare to 29.91 mmt's in Q2 last year. A local Chinese source indicated that several crushers had halted operations recently due to a reluctance by buyers to purchase US supplies and a delay in Brazil's harvest.
- Sources are indicating Russia has presented the US with a list of demands for any sort of peace deal, though details were lacking on exactly what that list contained. Russian President Putin, dressed in military clothing and speaking to reporters, further outlined Russia's position as not having a lot of interest in a temporary ceasefire that didn't address Russia's longer term concerns.
- Argentina again saw better than expected rains on Wednesday in the south, but forecasts otherwise remain little changed through the rest of the week and into the weekend in calling for limited additional precip in Argentina and better rains in south-central/southeast Brazil. Extended forecasts still show a return of moisture though for Argentina by the end of the month, which will be needed.
- US weather overnight was also little changed, with models still in good agreement on forecasting possible severe weather throughout a large area of the southern/southeastern US. Wind gusts of up to 50+mph are possible, while the storm prediction center's severe storm outlook shows a moderate risk (the second highest risk level) of severe thunderstorms through parts of MO and IL Friday night into Saturday. Once this passes, things should turn warm and dry again into next week before another storm is forecast for mid-week.