AM Comments March 3 2025

Posted on Mar 03 at 07:36

Good morning. Happy first trading day in March. Ag markets at the CBOT are starting the new week out mixed this morning, as an initial overnight rally rolled over to the downside on not a lot of new news or volume. As we mentioned going home to end last week, today promises to be interesting from a macro standpoint, as the threat of tariffs looms at midnight this evening on Mexico and Canada; we have little way of knowing this morning whether there is a chance for deals to made over the course of today in Washington or if the tariffs are a foregone conclusion, but the already heightened headline risk will presumably be a bit higher yet through the day on Monday with the situation ongoing and there being otherwise not a lot of fresh breaking news. Corn futures to start the week are trading 3-4 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 2-3 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading around a penny higher. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down $1-1.50/ton, and soybean oil is up 40-50 points. Outside markets are higher, crude oil futures are up 20-30 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 100 points, and the US$ index is down 70 points. The S&P500 is up 30 points and the NASDAQ is up 150 points. Gold futures are up $30-40/oz but still inside of Friday's range.

 

Today's Reports: Weekly Export Inspections

 

  • Last week's CFTC commitment of traders report for the week ending Tuesday, February 25th, showed managed money traders were now net-long 337,454 contracts of corn (-16,079 on the week), net-long 8,209 contracts of soybeans (-8,318), and net-short 67,614 contracts of Chicago wheat (-6,037). In soy products, funds are now net-short 63,193 contracts of soybean meal (-6,200), and are net-long 43,052 contracts of soybean oil (-10,420).

 

  • The CME Group's delivery slate for Monday was active; the slate showed 207 contracts of soybean meal assigned for delivery, 479 contracts of soybean oil, 220 contracts of corn, 183 contracts of KC wheat, 1 contracts of oats, 220 contracts of soybeans, and 257 contracts of Chicago wheat.

 

  • The USDA today will release monthly corn and soybean crush data in the Fats & Oils and Grain Crushings reports after the market close this afternoon; traders expect soybean crush in January totaled 210.9 mil bu, which would be up a little more than 8% from Jan of last year, while bean oil stocks are seen falling more than 13% from last year to 1.757 bil lbs. Corn used for ethanol is seen at 465.8 mil bu, which would be up a little less than 6%.

 

  • According to an article from the Global Times over the weekend, Chinese officials are considering retaliatory measures on US ag and food products in response to Trump's 10% increase on Chinese duties that is set to also take affect at midnight tonight. Sources said China's response would likely include both tariff and non-tariff measures, though no further details were given.

 

  • New US Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins, speaking at the commodity Classic in Denver yesterday, said the first $10 billion USD in assistance should start moving 'in the next few weeks', adding that she instructed her team to think creatively about how to make the application process to receive the funds quicker. Funds from the Environmental Quality Incentive Program and the Conservation Stewardship Program have been reviewed and approved in both cases.

 

  • The US EPA on Friday last week said it would delay the implementation of year-round E15 sales in both South Dakota and Ohio following a February 26th deadline for states to apply for the one-year delay. The roll out now looks to only apply to Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, and Wisconsin, and is still expected to go into effect on April 28th.

 

  • US Federally inspected beef production in the week ending March 1st fell to 494 mil lbs, which was down 0.4% from the week prior; pork production in the week was up 0.5% at 552 mil lbs. YTD beef production through the first two months of 2025 is down 3.1% from last year, and YTD pork production is down 4.7%.

 

  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over the weekend said he was open to meet with Trump again following Friday's Oval Office fireworks, but the US side had not offered a response as of this morning. Trump said on Friday that Zelensky did not seem ready for peace, and added that should he make such a shift Trump would be happy to resume the talks. Zelensky met with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron yesterday in London in the fallout of the meeting with the US.

 

  • The weather situation in Argentina continues to lean bearish on the margin, with weekend rains through most all of the country's growing regions totaling 0.5-2", with some locally heavier amounts in the north. Forecasts for this week show further precip chances possible, with 5-day totals possibly exceeding another 2-4" throughout most of the country's southern ag belt. The rains have caused temps in the south to trend cooler than average, while areas in the north and northeast stay warmer than average.

 

  • In Brazil, models have moved precip a hair further to the north and west over the weekend, with the bulk of the country's ag belt now expected to remain largely dry through this week and into next. Similar but opposite to Argentina, the dryness in the east will keep temperatures well above average, while moisture to the north and west keeps this part of the country average to slightly below average. Th forecast here remains a bit of a double-edged sword, as short-term dryness continues to aid harvest/planting activities but is depleting soil moisture that will be needed to pollinate safrinha corn later in April/May.

 

  • The US looks to see an active weather pattern to start March this week, with the models in good agreement on a strong low pressure system providing wind and rain to a large part of the mid-south/southeast and southern Midwest, while the upper Midwest will possibly see blizzard-like conditions out of this system Wednesday/Thursday. Models this morning see the heaviest rainfall totals over the next 5 days now in IA, where precip could exceed 2-2.5"; generally speaking, the models expect anywhere from 0.5" to 1.5" of rainfall for the rest of the eastern US.