Good afternoon and Happy Hump Day. Corn and soybean futures were mixed on Wednesday with CH finishing the day 4.25 cents higher while SH settled the day 4.75 cents lower. Bean products were also mixed with meal finishing 3.50 lower while bean oil closed .06 higher. Chicago wheat closed marginally higher with WH futures up a penny.

The outside markets were seen as supportive with energies rallying, the dollar index trading weaker and a solid rally in the equity markets. Crude oil is finishing the day sharply higher, up $3.07 and making fresh highs for the move while also trading above psychological $80 resistance. Crude oil inventories showed a weekly draw of 2 mb from the previous week. This is the 9th consecutive weekly draw for crude.

The equity markets enjoyed a solid bounce today following encouraging inflationary data, combined with solid bank earnings. The monthly data showed Core CPI rising 3.2% (YOY) with the trade expecting a 3.3% rise. Core CPI for the month rose 0.3% vs trade expectations of a 0.4% rise. Today's data reinforces yesterday's PPI data that also came in below expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped sharply on the news. Lastly, fourth quarter earnings got off to a positive start with the big banks topping the Street's expectations. Goldman Sachs rallied more than 5% and Wells Fargo rallied 7% at last glance.

Finishing off news from outside the grain markets, a ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel is in play, bringing an end to 15 months of intense fighting. The deal will begin on Sunday. Hamas has agreed to release 33 hostages. Israel has agreed to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners at the same time. The release of the hostages is the first stage of a deal with the 2nd stage moving on to a permanent ceasefire.

Corn was higher all day with open interest on the rise, suggesting new money coming in. On the daily chart, corn traded an inside day but appears poised to test the recent / yesterday's highs. Board spreads were firmer today and opposite the recent trend. CH/CK finished the day a penny firmer at -9.25.

Soybeans were on the defensive for much of the day. However, and in similar fashion to yesterday, beans did manage a mid-session rally that failed to hold into the close. The deferred months saw heavier selling than the nearby with SH closing 4.75 lower while SX finished the day down 10.25 cents. Soybean spreads firmed throughout the day. SH/SK up 1.25 to settle at -12.50. Weather reports out of Argentina continue to be on the forefront. China continues to source a few bean cargoes off the PNW while most of the business going to Brazil.

NOPA crush data was released today for the month of December. The crush data set a new, all-time record with 206.6 MB of beans crushed in the month of December, above the average trade estimate of 205.5 MB. Dec crush was up 6.9% from November and 5.8% larger than the 195.328 MB crushed in December 2023.The previous monthly record was set in October 2024 at 199.943 MB. The data included two newly operational plants from Kansas and North Dakota. Soyoil stocks rose to 1.236 bln lbs, up 14% from November and the largest stockpile since July. On a side note, the trade had expected stocks to come in slightly larger at 1.253 bln lbs.

Weekly ethanol production showed a weekly decline of 0.6% from the previous week but up 3.1% from the same week a year ago. Ethanol stocks rose 860k bbls from the previous week. So despite the drop in production, ethanol stocks rose to their highest level since April 2024. YTD we estimate corn usage for ethanol production at 2.025 BB vs 1.967 BB a year ago.

The midday weather maps were mixed for Argentina. The GFS model has been drier than the EU model, with the GFS once again trending drier into the weekend. The model sees light showers for central Argentina Sun-Mon but falls well short of totals needed to counter evaporation rates. The EU model has been leaning wetter with 0.5 to 1.50" seen possible across 60-70% of Argentina thru the weekend. Both models agree the heat moves out this weekend with more moderate temperatures expected.