AM Comments January 15, 2025

Posted on Jan 15 at 08:10

Good morning. Ag markets are trading quietly to start the day with corn and soybeans 2 cent to 3 higher and wheat futures 1 to 1 1/2 cents firmer. Commodity fund buying slowed considerably yesterday and markets responded with lower closes on pressure from moderate producer selling. Energy markets are firmer this morning. Crude oil is 40 to 45 cents/barrel higher and gasoline futures are 1 1/2 to 2 cents stronger. The Dollar is weaker; and stock futures are pointing towards a higher opening for U.S. equity markets. South American weather is a mixed bag. Brazil looks to be in good shape as dry areas of southern Brazil are expected to get beneficial rainfall during the upcoming weekend. Argentina will get some scattered rains late this week, but soil moisture levels in most crop areas will continue to decline.

 

Today's Reports: December Consumer Price Index; December Real Earnings; EIA Weekly Ethanol Production/Energy Stocks; NOPA Crush

 

  • There were no soybean deliveries assigned for Wednesday, but deliveries of 82 January soybean oil, 35 soybean meal, and 55 rough rice contracts were reported.

 

  • NOPA will release its monthly crush report late this morning. It is expected to report that its members crushed a record amount of soybeans during December. Analysts expect the December crush to be near 205.5 million bu. which would be 10 million bu. more than December 2023. NOPA said that today's report will include data from two recently opened crushing plants at Cherryvale, KS and Casselton, ND. Soyoil stocks held by NOPA members as of December 31st are expected to total near 1.25 billion lbs., compared to 1.084 billion lbs. on November 30th and 1.360 billion lbs. a year ago.

 

  • The weekly EIA energy report will be released at mid-morning and is expected to show daily ethanol production last week in a range of 1.090 to 1.105 million barrels. Ethanol stocks as of last Friday are expected to be in a range of 24.15 to 25.25 million barrels.

 

  • The CME announced that it list Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday weekly options on corn, soybean, wheat, soybean oil and soybean meal futures beginning Sunday, February 9, 2025.

 

  • Russia's Deputy Agriculture Minister said that Russian exports of wheat will fall to 46 MMTs for 24/25, down from last year's record high 55.5 MMTs.

 

  • Brazilian weather still looks favorable as heavy rains are forecast for dry areas of southern Brazil in the 6 to 10 day period while northern Brazil dries out after the recent period of above normal rainfall.

 

  • Western and southern Argentina are expected to receive beneficial rainfall beginning Saturday with rain totals forecasted be 0.75 to 1.50". Drier than normal conditions will then return for Argentina for late January.