AM Comments January 3 2025
Good morning. Happy New Year. And Happy Friday. Corn and soybean markets are lower to start Friday trade at the CBOT. Meal futures are taking a corrective slide at least early in the session, which seems to be acting as a drag on the whole of the soy complex. As we head into the weekend, traders and farmers through the Midwestern states will have some of their attention turned toward the coming winter storm set for Sunday/Monday, as newswires look to be on the quiet side for one more day before the data flow more or less returns to normal next week. Private crop estimates in Brazil are ticking higher, which is helping to offset the growing concern in Argentina and keep price rallies subdued. Corn futures this morning are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 7-9 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is down 4-5 cents. Products are lower, soybean meal is down $4-5/ton, and soybean oil is down around 5 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are down around 10 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 110 points, and the US$ index is down 45 points. The S&P500 is up 15 points and the NASDAQ is up 75 points.
Today's Reports: Weekly Export Sales
- Deliveries for Friday according to the CME Group include another 33 contracts of soybean meal, 237 contracts of soybean oil, and 331 contracts of soybeans. There were also 5 contracts of 5-year T-notes assigned.
- This morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending December 26th is expected to show corn sales for the week in a range of 800k-1.4 mil mt's, soybean sales in a range of 500k-1.2 mil mt's, and wheat sales in range of 200k-500k mt's. 2025/26 corn sales are seen between 0-50k mt's and 2025/26 soybean sales are seen between 0-100k mt's.
- The USDA released both the Fats and Oils report for November, and also the Grain Crushing report; soybean crush in the month was seen down 2.7% from last month at 210 mil bu, while corn grind for ethanol was seen down 0.4% from last month at 464.9 mil bu. Stocks of soybean oil were seen at 1.613 bil lbs, up 2.5% from last month. To view the Fats and Oils report, please click here. To view the Grain Crushing report, please click here.
- Private ag group StoneX on Thursday raised their estimate of Brazil's soybean crop in the 2024/25 season to 171.4 mmt's, up from 166.2 mmt's at the start of December. They also increased their export estimate by 4 mmt's to 107 mmt's. Total corn production was also seen marginally higher at 128.6 mmt's, up from 128.3 mmt's previously.
- According to sources familiar, palm oil imports into India in the month of December were down nearly 40% from their November level to 503k mt's due to a surge in prices. At the same time, soybean oil imports in the month hit a new 4-month high at 420k mt's, as buyers attempted to source alternative feedstocks.
- Barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending December 28th were seen at 945k tons, which was up nearly 19% from the week prior. Corn shipments in the week were up 19% also to 500k tons, while soybean shipments were up 24% at 410k tons. STL barge freight rates were down 36 cents/short ton on the week to $15.36.
- Sources are indicating US President Joe Biden has decided to block the sale of United States Steel Corp. to Japan's Nippon Steel Corp., effectively ending the months-long saga. The $14.1 billion dollar deal has faced opposition through most of 2024, with the White House expected to make an announcement later on Friday. Both companies have said they would pursue legal action should Biden block the acquisition.
- Midwest weather continues to feature a large snow storm for a fairly narrow band through the mid-section of the country Sunday/Monday, while low temps into the middle of the month in the east remain the other main feature. Satellite data shows a decent snow squall worked through E NE and into IA and N IL on Thursday, dropping 1-4" of accumulation; lake effect snow also impacted the northeast and downwind side of the Lakes, while the northwest also continued to see snows in the mountains.
- There weren't a lot of forecast changes overnight, as the GFS still has this weekend's snow path stretching from the KS/NE line east through N MO and C IL and then through IN and OH and across the mountains and into the East Coast. As we mentioned yesterday, exact snowfall amounts/locations will be extremely hard to predict, but it remains fairly likely that a good portion of the central Midwest is going to get hit with a pretty big event into early next week.
- The EU's AI model temperature outlook has produced a return to warmer conditions for the whole of the US January 13th-18th, which is the first sign of a shift back away from the frigid temps expected over the next couple weeks. Neither of the ensembles have picked up on this shift, which means it will need monitored through the weekend and into next week. Otherwise, highs continue to run some 10-20 degrees F below average for most of the eastern half of the US over the next 10 days.
- No updates for South America, as light rains dotted very scattered areas in northwestern Argentina on Thursday, but otherwise missed the bulk of the country's growing regions. Rains were also able to creep somewhat into southern Brazil, but areas in the far southwest towards Uruguay continued to miss out. There were no overnight forecast changes, with models continuing to expect dry conditions in Argentina and Southern Brazil, while the rest of Brazil sees average to above average rains.
- Have a good first weekend of 2025!