AM Comments December 24 2024
Good morning. Happy Holidays. Christmas Eve trading has started off mixed/quiet this morning, with corn and wheat trading unchanged to lower and the soy complex trading unchanged to higher. Ag markets will see an early close today at 12:05pm central time and then will not open again until 8:30am Thursday morning, meaning today's session likely stays on the low side in terms of volume. And with the New Year's holiday producing a similarly broke up week next week, we see it likely that this type of trading extends into January as well. Corn futures this morning are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 2-3 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is down 1-2 cents. Products are higher, soybean meal is up around $1/ton and soybean oil is up 5-10 points. Outside markets are mostly higher, crude oil futures are up 30-40 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is unchanged, and the US$ index is up 10 points. The S&P500 is also unchanged and the NASDAQ is up 50 points.
Today's Reports: API Energy Stocks
- The USDA on Monday released both the monthly cold storage report for November and also the quarterly hogs and pigs report. The cold storage report showed total red meat supplies in freezers down just over 3% from October, and down 4.6% compared to November of last year.
- The quarterly hogs and pigs report showed US inventory of all hogs and pigs as of Dec 1 at 75.85 mil head, which was down just 0.3% from the previous quarter, but was up 0.5% from Dec 1 last year. Breeding hogs were up 0.1% from last year, while market hogs were seen up 0.5% from last year.
- Private Black Sea ag analyst SovEcon on Monday lowered their estimate of Russia's 2024/25 wheat exports to 43.7 mmt's, down from 44.1 mmt's previously. Same group sees exports in the 2025/26 season at 36.4 mmt's.
- The Indonesian Palm Oil Association said on Tuesday that palm oil exports from the country in October were seen at 2.888 mil tons, up from a revised Sep figure of 2.260 mil tons. Production in the month increased from 4.415 mil tons to 4.843 mil, while stocks fell from 2.622 mil tons to 2.502 mil tons.
- Sources familiar with the matter say Turkey is expected to ease its wheat import policy after the start of the new year; the new measure would require importers to purchase just 75% of their wheat from the Turkish Grain Board, compared with an 85% rate previously, while the remaining 25% could be directly imported from other countries.
- A US National Security Panel on Monday deadlocked on its review of the sale of United Sates Steel Corp to Japanese Nippon Steel Corp, leaving a pathway for President Biden to have the final say on the matter; Biden has repeatedly indicated his opposition to the deal, and has 15 days from Monday to announce a decision. Both companies have signaled they will challenge any blocking of the merger deal in court.
- US weather forecasts continue to offer a pattern shift beyond the opening days of January, but were otherwise unchanged overnight. Rains look to begin falling in the mid-south (TX/OK/AR) this morning, with several systems then seen bringing precip to this area and areas further to the east through the remainder of this week and into the middle of next week. The PNW also sees several rounds of rain/snow in the same period.
- Week-two forecasts are then still in poor agreement for the first week of January; the EU and GFS ensembles show average precip chances for most all of the country besides the southeast and southwest, while also showing slightly above average precip chances through the northeast and most of the Midwest; the EU AI model is similar, but is significantly wetter through the northeast and northeastern Midwest.
- Temperature forecasts for the next 10 days shifted some of the warmest air further to the north overnight, but still show a well above average temp outlook into the end of the year for most all of the US, and especially the east. Cool air looks to return beyond January 2nd/3rd.
- Argentina again picked up better than expected rains according to satellite data on Monday; most all of southeast and south-central Argentina saw rains of 0.1-1", with some locally heavier amounts, though northern areas were left on the dry side. Paraguay and southern Brazil were also dry, while central and northern Brazil saw scattered rains with similar totals to those seen in Argentina.
- Forecasts added some rains for north-west Argentina the rest of this week, but otherwise remain largely unchanged form recent runs. There continues to be no sign of a pattern shift in Brazil meaning crops here will stay well-watered, while in Argentina, forecasts keep trying to pull in influence from La Niña that is just too weak to have an effect. 10-15 day outlooks for Argentina also trended wetter overnight, especially in the north and northwest.
- We wish everybody a very Merry Christmas and hope you can enjoy some time with loved ones over the next few days!