Good afternoon and happy Friday. Commodities saw two-sided trade throughout part of the session before moving lower and ending the day in the red. Despite a new soybean export flash sale this morning, a lack of fresh news coupled with mostly benign weather in South America ultimately weighed on prices. Next support for SF25 rests at $9.75 and the next significant support for CH25 is near $4.34. As we move deeper into the month, holiday-like trading is expected to become more prevalent as the end of the year gets closer.

CH ended the week at $4.42, down 1 ½ ¢. CK was 1 ¾ ¢ lower at $4.49 ¼. SF closed 9.88 ¼, off 7 ¼ ¢. SH was down 8 ¼ ¢ to $9.95. WH closed at $5.52 ¼, down 6 ¼ ¢. Products were weaker. January soybean meal closed at 286.20, down $3.30 ton, and January soybean oil closed at 42.61, off 6 points. Livestock markets were mixed to end the week; February live cattle resumed this week's rally, settling at $192.025, up $1.175, January feeders closed lower at $257.65, down 70¢, and February hogs rallied for the 4th day in a row, closing at $85.60, $1.125 higher. Outside markets are mixed. Spot crude oil reached a three-week high today and is currently up $1.20/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 103 points, and the US$ index is near unchanged. The S&P500 is down 38 points and the NASDAQ set a new intraday high.

Spreads were mixed to end the week, corn spreads were down a ¼ ¢ to up a ½ ¢, and soybean spreads were down a ¼ ¢ to ¾ ¢ higher. CZ/CH went off the board today at -12. SF/SH closed at -6 ¾, up ¾ ¢. CH/CK closed at -7 ¼, a ¼ ¢ firmer. WZ/WH went off the board at -25 ¾, down 6 ¢. WH/WK finished the day off a ¼ ¢ at -10.

For the week: March corn was 2 ¢ higher; May corn was up 4 ¢. January soybeans were down 5 ½ ¢; March soybeans were 4 ¼ ¢ lower; March Chicago wheat was down a nickel.

USDA this morning announced a daily sales flash of 200,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year, bringing the weekly total of bean sales to unknown this week to 534,000 metric tons. There has been talk in recent days that China is seeking Feb/Mar beans for strategic reserves. Sinograin has reportedly been asking for offers on January PNW & March gulf beans, but there has been no confirmation of anything actually trading. Talk has also circulated this week that values theoretically work to import Brazilian soybeans into the U.S. for the Feb/March timeline, though there has been no confirmation of it happening as of yet.

Grain logistics are facing some challenges. The extreme drop in temperatures this week slowed truck deliveries. Low water has reduced barge drafts and tow sizes, increasing transit times by 1 to 2 days. This, along with an uptick in coal barge demand is tightening up the barge fleet running up and down the river system. River house shippers continue to talk about a busy December loading month with a strong export book on. Reports also indicate that eastern rail performance has been slipping, due to a lack of crews/manpower. 

Interest rate decisions will be a focus next week, following recent cuts in the EU, Canada, and Switzerland. Traders are still expecting to see the Fed go with a 25-basis point rate cut. However, as seen in Wednesday's CPI number, inflation has not gone away and is expected to remain a big part of the FOMC statement. The battle to trim government spending and downsize the role of government is expected to heat up as we move into the month of January. For reference, government spending attributes to roughly 17-18% of U.S. GDP. 

November NOPA crush is scheduled for release at 11 am CT Monday. Trade estimates would suggest total U.S. bean crush will be lower than October's all-time high (with one less day in the month) but that the daily processing rate likely rose. The average crush estimate for the month is estimated near 195.9 mln. bu. Estimates ranged from 191.0 to 207.0 mln. bu. (The November crush figure is not expected to fully reflect recent capacity growth). 

Russia has reduced their wheat export tax 15% for the period ending December 24th. That said, reports are circulating that Russia has stopped 2 cargoes of wheat to Syria due to concerns regarding payment delays with the new government. As a result, Ukraine is saying they can step up and supply Syria with needed grain and other foodstuffs.  

Mid-day weather forecasts show mostly above normal temperatures this weekend across the Midwest and this trend looks to continue through week 2 of the outlook, especially in the western region. Rainfall is expected to favor the Delta, southern Midwest, and eastern region. Week-two forecasts remain in good agreement on a drier pattern for most of the country into the Christmas holiday.

Forecast in South America call for southern and central Brazil to receive rainfall, with some locally heavier amounts possible, while northern and central Argentina see scattered rains. Southern Argentina will likely see the least amount of precipitation into early next week. BAGE is estimating Argentine soy plantings have advanced to 65% complete and corn is 56% planted. 

Have a good weekend and enjoy the warmer weather.