PM Comments November 29 2024
Good afternoon. Happy Black Friday. Expectedly choppy trade was seen in corn and soybean markets on Friday, as the three and a half hour trading session produced higher trade in corn, while a morning rally in soybeans was sold into the close leaving prices mixed. That beans could not hold onto their morning gains despite surprisingly strong export data was discouraging for the bull camp, though the market did manage to avoid new contract lows. Otherwise, most of the trade called it a week on Wednesday, with volume this morning expectedly low.
CZ closed Friday at 4.23, up 7 1/4. CH was up 5 cents at 4.33. SF finished at 9.89 1/2, up 3/4 of a cent. SH closed at 9.96, down a penny. WH closed at 5.48, down a half cent. Products were mixed, January soybean meal closed at 291.90, down $3.50/ton, and January soybean oil closed at 41.74, up 82 points. Inside day for bean oil.
Livestock markets were mixed to end the week, February live cattle closed at 188.62, up 2 cents, January feeders closed at 259.47, up 70 cents, and February hogs closed at 86.32, down $1.60. Hogs had a gap lower start to the session this morning, while feeders made new highs for the move and also for the week.
Outside markets are trading mixed, crude oil futures are down 5-10 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 220 points, and the US$ index is down 20-30 points. The S&P500 is up 35 points and the NASDAQ is up 180 points. New contract highs for both the S&P and the Dow to end the week. Gold is around $20/oz higher.
Spreads were firm to end the week, corn spreads were up a half cent to up 4 cents, and soybean spreads were up a penny to up 5 cents. CZ/CH last traded at -10, up 2 and 1/4, and SF/SH last traded at -6 1/4, up 2 cents. Last trade on the CH/CK was -6 3/4, up a half cent. Also another wide-ranging day in wheat spreads, as the Z/H Chicago traded an 11 cent range with the last at -13 3/4, and the Z/H Minneapolis traded a 17 cent range, with the last at -14 3/4.
For the week: December corn was down 2 1/2 cents; March corn was down 2 and 1/4 cents; January soybeans were up 6 cents; March soybeans were up 3 and 3/4 cents; and December Chicago wheat was down 12 cents.
USDA this morning ended the week with a large batch of daily soybean flash sales; private exporters reported sales of 840,000 mt's of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/25 marketing year, and also reported 151,700 mt's of soybeans received in the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations also during the 2024/25 marketing year.
Weekly export sales data this morning was particularly strong, especially in the case of the soy complex. Soybean sales in the week ending November 21st totaled 2.491 mmt's, which was above the upper end of trade estimates and also the highest figure of the marketing year; China bought 1.087 mmt's and current sales are up 10% from last year. Meal sales totaled 487k mt's (mostly to the Philippines), and soybean oil sales totaled 125k mt's, with not quite half going to India. Soybean oil sales are currently up 1,236% (not a typo) from last year, and are also nearly 50% above the USDA's current full marketing year forecast which began just three months ago. WASDE will be making upwards adjustments to their soybean oil export forecast in coming reports as US soybean oil is the cheapest veg oil in the world.
On the grain side, corn sales for the week totaled 1.063 mmt's, which was near the lower end of trade expectations; Mexico bought 405,200 mt's and current sales are up 33% from last year. Wheat sales totaled 367k mt's, with unknown destinations being the featured buyer in the week at 95k mt's. Wheat sales are up 20% from a year ago.
Other grain specific news on Friday included an announcement from the Russian Ag Ministry that the wheat export quota from February 15th through June 30th would be set at just 11 mmt's; this compares to 26 mmt's last year and 29 mmt's the year prior. This likely causes shift in global export business to the southern hemisphere next Spring.
The equity world had a mostly quiet end to the week, although as previously mentioned both the S&P500 and the Dow made new contract highs. Data was mostly limited on Friday, with traders turning their attention to next week's employment data; the JOLTs jobs survey for October is due out on Tuesday, while non-farm payrolls for the month are due out at the end of the week on Friday. The $ index will also remain in focus, as tariff talk by President-elect Trump likely keeps world currency relations volatile.
Weekend weather looks to be mostly uneventful through the majority of the Midwest, save for one small band of snowfall that is possible for northern MO east across southern IL/IN/OH and into WV and PA that might produce light accumulation. The northern Great Lakes region will also continue to see lake effect snow over the next several days, while the rest of the country sees mostly dry conditions. Weekend temperatures will be cold east of the Rocky Mountains, with highs not getting out of the single digits in parts of ND and MN, while the rest of the Midwest sees generally upper 20's to low 30's. Ridging present in the west will allow for more seasonally average temps.
Cool/dry conditions then look likely to continue through next week, before Gulf moisture makes its way into TX/LA towards the end of next week. Otherwise, rainfall chances through the Corn Belt look to remain mostly absent, which along with a cooling of temperatures, should allow for a catch up on Fall agronomy work through the first part of December.
South America looks to see continued good rains over the weekend, with the best totals of 2-3" likely across southern Brazil and northeast Argentina. Decent rains look to also be seen scattered through northwest and also southeast Argentina, while central and southwestern growing areas look to see rains on the lighter end. For Brazil, rainfall totals will be a bit hit or miss through most of the central growing regions, though a good majority of the area is expected to see 1+". Next week looks to bring continued good rains throughout most all of Brazil, while Argentina will again turn back off into a drier pattern.
Have a good weekend! Stay warm!