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E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

 
Tuesday, June 28, 2022
As expected, the condition of the US corn and soybean crops slipped lower last week. This now puts corn at 67% Good/Excellent and soybeans at 65% G/E, both down 3% from the previous week. Corn is now 4% silking which is at the average pace. Soybeans are 7% blooming which is 4% under average. The winter wheat harvest is at 41% complete. Spring wheat is rated 59% G/E, well above last year’s figure. The US pasture condition came in at 31% G/E, a slight improvement from last week. While trade will monitor these numbers and factor them into market values, interest is very likely to quickly return to positioning for the upcoming USDA reports on Thursday. Trade is also positioning for month and quarter end as well. This may actually be more of a factor in trade as the week winds down without a major surprise in the USDA data. We are right in front of the July 4th holiday which can change the attitude of the market. Historically we have heard reports of crops being “made” if they make it to this date without stress. While this is possible, in several recent years the crops have both been made or lost by abnormal August weather. This year will likely be no different.  

Highlights
* Chinese drought talk increases
* High freight impacting more trade
* Freight costly both domestically and globally 
* Shipping costs expected to remain firm 
* Global feed demand questioned
* Pollination forecasts watched closely 
* Food vs Fuel debate increasing 
* Farmers selling shut off 
* All eyes on June 30th reports 
* June 30th also month, quarter end 

Corn
* Trade more optimistic on SAM crop
* Trade questions SAM drought impact
* Analysts believe genetics reduce drought impact 
* Brazil offers much lower than US   
* Brazil storing corn wherever possible 
 
Soybeans
* China indicates lower summer needs
* China meal inventory continues to build
* Basis values starting to soften   
* Buyers pass on US offers  
* Canadian canola crop -7%   

Wheat
* Canada says plantings +6% 
* High quality reported in US crop        
* More buyers surface for Russian wheat  
* US export demand is low  
* More Russian grain theft reports   
  
Livestock
* Cash cattle trade down $2-$3   
* Feeder cattle seeing pressure   
* US beef exports drop  
* YTD beef exports still record high     
* YTD pork exports -24% from 2021  

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.