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E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

 
Tuesday, May 10, 2022
The US planting pace on corn and soybeans came in just under average trade guesses. The US corn crop is now 22% planted compared to the average 50% for this date. Corn is also 5% emerged with the normal amount being 15% of the crop. Soybeans are 12% seeded, half the normal pace. Soybean emergence is at 3%, 1% behind average. The wheat crops continue to struggle, although the winter wheat rating did improve 2% on the week to total 29% Good/Excellent. Winter wheat is also 33% headed compared to the five-year 40% average. Spring wheat is 27% planted and 9% emerged with normal rates being 47% and 15% respectively. We did see a 4% improvement to the US pasture condition, but it is still  a large 52% Poor/Very Poor. Next week’s planting progress report may be one of the most watched of the year. There is a general feel in the market that any corn planted after mid-May sees significant yield drag. The window for planting soybeans is longer with not much yield loss seen until we get into June. Trade will still view any factor that may jeopardize final production of any crop as bullish given current stocks to use projections.  

Highlights
* Drought impacts more US acres
* One-quarter of US corn in drought 
* Worst drought in So US
* US wheat Belt does see precip 
* China shopping for new crop coverage
* Ukraine has 25 mmt of grain to move
* Currency rates affecting global trade
* US inflation report tomorrow
* May WASDE on Thursday
* Also initial winter wheat assessment 

Corn
* Corn 22% planted
* Corn 5% emerged
* US forward sales +77% from last year
* 44% of US sales to China       
* Ukraine plantings 25% of last year 
 
Soybeans
* Soybean planting at 12%  
* Soybean emergence at 3% 
* Forward sales +63% from last year 
* China is 65% of US demand       
* Brazil sales slowing  

Wheat
* Winter wheat rated 20% G/E   
* Spring wheat 27% planted      
* US forward sales -23% on the year
* India putting little wheat into storage 
* Russia predicts 10 mmt increase to storage       
  
Livestock
* Wholesale beef weaker 
* Pork cut out under pressure
* Economy weighs on meat demand
* Cumulative cattle slaughter +0.5% 
* YTD hog slaughter -5.4%

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.