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E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

 
Monday, May 09, 2022
Nearly all interest to start this week’s trade will be on getting positions in place ahead of the monthly WASDE report. This is the most highly anticipated supply and demand report of the marketing year as it contains the initial look at official new crop balance sheets. The United States is already seeing ending stocks that are at minimal levels and it is likely this will carry over to new crop as well. It is likely that new crop corn balance sheets will tighten even more given the loss of acreage that has taken place from last year. Even if soybean acres are up as much as the USDA is publishing ending stocks will likely remain tighter than usual given our projected demand. Trade will also be paying close attention to planting reports from across the United States this week to see how much of the corn can be planted by next week. Trade tends to believe that any corn planted after May 15th is likely to see yield drag. Given current weather models it is likely a large amount of planting will take place this week, but it is unlikely all of the country’s corn will be seeded by week end. For today’s session, all interest will fall on planting reports and US weather outlooks to start.  

Highlights
* Importers shop for fertilizer coverage
* May take years for fertilizer to recover losses 
* Ukraine grain storage concerns build
* Ukraine spring crops 31% planted
* Total Ukraine acres to decline 20% 
* Ukraine exports remain slow
* More sanctions placed on Russia
* US pushes for food security
* Importers shopping for late summer coverage
* May WASDE on Thursday

Corn
* July corn -28 ¾ last week
* Drought hits parts of Brazil
* Brazil optimistic on corn production
* Ethanol margins at 15c/gal       
* Feed demand likely to rise 
 
Soybeans
* July soybeans -62 ¾ last week
* More import interest in sunflower oil
* Domestic buyers keep pushing bids 
* Chinese crush margins improve      
* US sales above yearly estimates 

Wheat
* July wheat +52 ¾ last week    
* Heat, drought still impact India production      
* India still predicting large exports   
* Texas crop seeing drought losses 
* Ukraine optimistic on production       
  
Livestock
* Cash cattle trade from $140 to $144
* YTD beef exports 309,000 mt
* YTD beef exports +2.4% from last year
* YTD pork exports 502,000 mt
* Pork exports well behind last year

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.