E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

Friday, April 01, 2022
Now that we are past the quarterly stocks and planting intentions reports trade focus will start to shift back to immediate fundamental factors. The main one of these is the US planting pace and how quick crops are seeded. Rains have moved through several regions of the southern US to slow fieldwork and cause minimal delays. Some forecasters are claiming the entire southern and eastern US will see planting delays this year, but it is quite early to be making these predictions. It may be hard to get the market to rally on a slower planting pace until we get well into May. Trade also has a tendency to look at rains as being negative for futures as they build soil moisture levels and elevate yield potential. Historically a market reacts to dry conditions much quicker that wet patterns. We will also see more interest placed on the demand side of balance sheets as we move into the second half of the marketing year. There are several outlooks that indicate demand for US commodities will increase as the summer months progress, and now is when buyers would likely start to layer in these purchases.  

* New month positioning 
* Rains benefit US wheat crop 
* Wheat ratings improve
* Privates lower SAM soy export forecast
* China to auction soybeans today 
* Chinese crush margins improving 
* Weather favorable to finish SAM harvest
* Managed money leery of commodities
* Ukraine neighbors provide fuel for planting
* WASDE report next Friday

* US acreage 89.5 million
* Acreage -4% vs last year
* Quarterly stocks 7.85 bbu  
* Stocks +2% on the year  
* Feb ethanol usage after the close  
* US acreage a record 91 million
* Acreage +4% vs last year 
* Quarterly stocks at 1.93 bbu  
* Stocks +24% on the year      
* Feb crush est 175.2 mbu     

* Total US acreage at 47.4 million  
* Acreage +1% vs last year 
* Total US acres 5th lowest since 1919      
* Quarterly stocks at 1.03 bbu      
* Stocks -22% on the year       
* US beef sales -17% at 23,000 mt
* US pork sales +19% at 27,600 mt
* Packers focused on summer needs
* Slaughter tends to slide into Memorial Day
* Cash markets lightly tested   
RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.