Menu
 

E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

 
Thursday, March 31, 2022
The long awaited quarterly stocks and planting intentions reports will finally be released today at 11:00 AM CT. For acres trade is expecting 92 million on corn, 88.9 million on soybeans, and 47.9 million for wheat. These compare to the Ag Outlook Forum estimates for 92 million acres of corn, 88 million acres of soybeans, and 48 million acres of wheat. Quarterly stocks are forecast at 1.04 billion bu of wheat, 7.86 billion bu of corn, and 1.89 billion bu of soybeans. From last year these are declines of 21% for wheat and increases of 21% on soybeans and 2.2% more corn. Not only will this data be released today, but so will the weekly export numbers. Trade continues to look for signs of elevated demand following the Black Sea conflict, but so far, export sales have been lighter than hoped for. If we continue to see lethargic demand, there is a high probability that additional liquidation of long positions will take place. We may also see elevated trade activity today as it is both month and quarter end in the markets. While much of the positioning for this has been done, we always tend to see a few stragglers on the final day.  

Highlights
* Brazil basis values weaker
* Brazil exports likely larger than projected 
* Argentine crop ratings improve
* Ukraine making rail exports
* US oil rig count rising 
* More countries consider biofuel blend adjustments
* Weekly ethanol production -42,000 barrels 
* Weekly ethanol reserves +318,000 barrels
* Month/Quarter end today
* Stocks/Acreage reports at 11:00 AM CT

Corn
* US acreage est 92 million
* Trade est equal to Ag Forum   
* Quarterly stocks est 7.86 bbu  
* Stocks est +2.2% on the year  
* Corn up 11 of past 15 years on report data  
 
Soybeans
* Trade acreage est 88.9 million
* Outlook forum est 88 million 
* Quarterly stocks est 1.89 bbu   
* Stocks est +21% on the year      
* Soy up 9 of past 15 years on report data     

Wheat
* Total US acreage est 47.9 million  
* Forum acreage est 48 million       
* Quarterly stocks est 1.04 bbu       
* Stocks est -21% on the year       
* Wheat up 7 of past 15 March reports          
  
Livestock
* YTD US beef production equal to 2021   
* YTD US pork production -7%      
* Total red meat production -3.5%  
* US hog inventory -2.2% at 72.2 million
* Market/Breeding hogs both -2%   
         
RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.