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E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

 
Wednesday, March 30, 2022
Country movement of farm stored corn and soybeans has declined considerably in recent weeks. This is not uncommon as seasonally the farmer attitude shifts from marketing to planting at this stage of the calendar. As a result, some buyers across the United States have started to offer incentives for immediate ship deliveries. The most common of these is a firmer basis, but we are also starting to see more free storage and deferred pricing contracts being offered. Even with these incentives we are not seeing much movement. One reason for the lack of sales is farmers are thought to have already marketed 80-90% of their old crop corn and soybeans. Another reason for the lack of selling is many farmers are expecting to see higher commodity values as the marketing year progresses, especially if we see a weather issue develop in the United States. Many importers are now counting on the US to supply their needs, particularly on corn, as the global market will not have an alternative to the US until the South American export program gets underway later this summer. Logistic issues have started to impact movement though, and this is limiting our current basis appreciation.  

Highlights
* EU offers subsidies to expand acreage
* Freight limiting global trade 
* Farmer focus now all on planting
* 41% of US in some level of drought
* Last year drought was 30% of US 
* US soil temps remain cool
* Inflation reduced US disposable income   
* Importers turn to domestic reserves 
* Prospective Plantings/Quarterly Stocks on Thursday
* Thursday also month/quarter end

Corn
* China remains absent from export market
* Brazil crop scouts raise yield estimates   
* Brazil corn exports could rise 66%  
* Corn Oil/DDGs values weaken  
* SAM basis softens  
 
Soybeans
* Rains slow SAM harvest  
* Rains did little to benefit crop 
* Biodiesel market stabilizes   
* Outstanding Us sales a record 708 mbu      
* Global oilseed market volatility builds     

Wheat
* 70% of US winter wheat in drought  
* Wheat drought is starting to improve      
* Russia again raises export taxes       
* Black Sea wheat is being exported       
* Ukraine production may drop 55%          
  
Livestock
* Quarterly hog & pig report today   
* US hog herd est 98.8% of last year     
* Cumulative yearly hog slaughter -5% 
* Hog weights down 1 pound on the year 
* US Feb pork production a 3 year low   
 
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