E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

Tuesday, March 29, 2022
Much of the interest on this week’s USDA reports has fallen on planting intentions, but the quarterly stocks data has proven to be just as much of a factor for market reaction. Trade estimates indicate the March 1st US soybean supply may be 400 million bu larger than a year ago. This is mainly from a larger soybean crop last year than the year before, but also from reduced soybean exports. At the present time US soybean exports trail last year by a large 407 million bu. While soybean exports are forecast to increase as the year progresses this higher inventory may temper immediate advances. As for corn, March 1st stocks are expected to be roughly 170 million bu more than a year ago. This is nearly all from production as corn consumption is running 200 million bu ahead of last year, mainly for ethanol and feed. The real question on US corn and soybean inventory is what changes we may see for the remainder of the marketing year. Demand for both corn and soybeans is expected to rise as the market year progresses and global stocks tighten. 

* Ukraine farmers have started planting
* Russia raises winter crop estimates 
* Mississippi River fully open
* EU concerns with feed grain shortages
* Average US ethanol margin +16 cents
* US gasoline demand remains high 
* Global feeders shift to lower cost ingredients  
* Feed shift may lower efficiencies 
* Prospective Plantings/Quarterly Stocks on Thursday
* Thursday also month/quarter end

* Argentine rain benefits questioned 
* Early Arg yields lower than expected   
* Feed grain supply monitored 
* China continues to avoid US imports  
* New crop sales slowing 
* Canola values at all-time highs  
* Canola values 250% of 2 years ago 
* Ukraine sunflower corn -42%  
* US soy overpriced in global market      
* Buyers covering needs from SAM    

* Importers push back on high costs 
* Trade expects more Egypt business     
* Most interest now on US new crop       
* US forward sales +25% from last year       
* So Africa production to decline 9% this year         
* Cash cattle sales light   
* Most sales near $138.00     
* US beef sales record 192,000 mt 
* Beef sales +1.7% from last year 
* Total US pork sales 320,000 mt       
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