E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

Tuesday, January 11, 2022
Much of today’s session will be spent getting final positions in place ahead of tomorrow’s monthly supply and demand report. For the most part trade is expecting crop sizes to hold mostly steady for the US, and slight changes to demand. The most changes to corn and soybean usage are being forecast for the domestic side as ethanol grind and soy crush are both running slightly ahead of the projected pace. These are not significant amounts though, so to see the USDA wait to adjust demand until later in the marketing year would not be a surprise either. It would also not be a surprise to see more interest on the South American balance sheets than the domestic ones tomorrow. South American crops have once again been subjected to harsh weather conditions and yield loss has undoubtedly taken place. The question being heavily debated is how much yields have been trimmed and where. It seems as though most losses have been in Southern Brazil, mainly the state of Parana. Even there, production has not been a total loss. In other parts of Brazil we are hearing of quite favorable crops which may offset a portion of the southern losses. This is a factor that will be debated for the next several weeks.  

* Covid to cause Chinese unloading delays
* Low drafts on US rivers continues
* Ukraine yearly grain exports +25.7% 
* Brazil continues to make old crop exports
* Technicals showing more market influence
* US needs to be more price competitive
* US not seeing active new crop demand     
* US supply lines remain stressed
* WASDE report tomorrow at 11:00 AM CT
* No major US production changes expected 

* Corn starting to pollinate in Argentina
* Analysts lowering SAM crop forecasts
* SAM corn consumption up for 20 years 
* Buyers source alterative feed grains 
* Weekly export loadings at 40.3 mbu
* No Brazil yields to offset some Southern losses
* Soy oil sales remain active
* Chinese buying focused on Brazil   
* Flooding continues to disrupt Palm Oil movement
* Weekly export inspections total 33.3 mbu

* Trade more concerned with US drought            
* Plains drought extends into Canada
* China to auction reserves tomorrow   
* Australian offers under global market
* Weekly loadings just 8.5 mbu
* Demand worries pressure cattle 
* Cash trade is light
* US slaughter pace slows 
* China expected to buy for Lunar New Year
* China also buying for upcoming Olympics

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