E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

Friday, September 10, 2021
Nearly all interest today will be on the release of the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Much of the attention in this is falling on US production, but there are other numbers that need to be monitored as well. One of these is the Canadian crops where production on wheat and canola was cut by Stats. Stats is predicting a larger corn crop in Canada though which may take pressure off other countries with smaller crops. South American production will also be closely watched to see if additional reductions are made to the Safrinha crop in Brazil. More interest is falling on South America’s new crop production though as crop sizes are forecast to increase substantially. One region where wheat losses are predicted is Russia where harvest is advancing, and yields are poor. This will likely be offset by larger wheat crop estimates from Ukraine and Australia. Once all of this data is released, trade will quickly turn its attention to the US harvest. While this activity has already been taking place trade is anxious to see yields from the heart of the Corn Belt. Not only will this data impact commodity futures, but basis as well.  

* Import buyers surface on breaks
* All export interest through PNW
* Gulf basis remains under pressure
* US Dollar remains strong
* Ukraine harvest underway
* Path of least resistance is currently lower
* Brazil soy planting to increase next week
* Covid remains underlying market factor
* WASDE today at 11:00 AM CT
* Most interest falling on acres

* Average yield estimate 175.8 bpa 
* Harvested acreage est 85.1 million
* Crop est 14.94 bbu; +250 mbu
* US 21/22 carryout est 1.38 bbu; +140 mbu
* World stocks est 286 mmt
* Average yield est 50.4 bpa
* Harvested acreage est 86.7 million  
* Crop est 4.38 bbu; +40 mbu
* US 21/22 carryout est 190 mbu; +35 mbu
* World stocks est 96.9 mmt   

* US 21/22 carryout est 616 mbu 
* World carryout est 279.03 mmt 
* Global ending stocks unchanged from August
* Feed usage may decline
* Smaller Russian crop expected
* Drought causes further herd reduction
* Canadian ranchers also liquidate herds
* Greatest concerns remain on breeding herd
* Wholesale beef is mixed
* Post-Labor Day meat demand is down

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.