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E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

 
Tuesday, July 13, 2021
As expected, the US corn crop rating improved 1% last week and now stands at 65% Good to Excellent. The US corn crop is also 26% silking and 3% in the dough stage. The soybean crop rating was unchanged on the week at 59% Good/Excellent. A reported 10% of the soybean crop has now set pods. The spring wheat rating remains poor at just 16% Good to Excellent. Winter wheat harvest is starting to advance and stands at 59% complete. There is little doubt we will continue to see reaction to yesterday’s WASDE numbers in today’s trade. On soybeans it is becoming apparent the USDA is unwilling to publish smaller ending stocks numbers than what we currently have. Our recent declines in demand indicate price rationing has taken effect, so steady ending stocks estimates are not surprising. The same case can be made in corn where stocks to use is slowly climbing. The USDA lowered its new crop price forecasts on corn and soybeans yesterday which further indicates price rationing has taken place. The USDA did cut production and ending stocks on wheat which was not a surprise either. Now that this data has been released trade will again focus on daily weather forecasts and crop reports for price discovery.  

Highlights
* Buyers shop for feed wheat over corn
* Trade concerns with declining export interest
* US is over-priced compared to other sources
* US ending stocks still expected to tighten
* Currency values not helping US demand 
* Large US fall exports predicted
* High freight costs limit all exports
* Brazil to increase corn-based ethanol
* Wide variance reported in US corn
* US basis volatility increases


Corn
* US yield 179.5 bpa, crop 15.16 bbu
* Old crop carryout 1.08 bbu
* New crop carryout 1.43 bbu
* Global 21/22 carryout 291.2 mmt 
* Average price forecast $5.60
 
Soybeans
* US yield 50.6 bpa, crop 4.4 bbu
* Old crop ending stocks 135 mbu
* New crop carryout 155 mbu
* World 21/22 ending stocks 94.5 mmt
* Average price forecast $13.70 

Wheat
* US total production 1.75 bbu
* Old crop carryout 844 mbu
* New crop carryout 665 mbu
* World 21/22 ending stocks 291.7 mmt
* Average US price est $6.60
 
Livestock
* 2021 beef production 27.91 billion pounds
* 2022 Us beef production 27.33 billion pounds
* 2021 pork production 28.15 billion pounds  
* 2022 pork production 28.12 billion pounds
* Total US meat production in 2022 at 107.19 billion pounds

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.