E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

Wednesday, June 23, 2021
More interest is starting to fall on positioning ahead of the long-awaited June acreage and stocks reports. Ever since the release of the acreage numbers in March we have witnessed disagreement with the figures. This is more so on the corn figure where the USDA pegged planted acres at 91.1 million. Thoughts were this number should have been closer to 94 million. As a result, some analysts are predicting a large increase in the June revisions that will reflect this shortfall. While this is possible, it is not a given. For one, reports indicate that input availability and cost is deterring corn planting. Another s the price spread between corn and soybeans that does not favor corn production. That said, several farmers across the Corn Belt are seeing better marketing opportunities on corn and may opt to seed more acres. There is much less interest on soybean acres with trade expecting a slight increase of maybe 1 million from the March figure of 87.6 million. A factor in the soybean acreage that needs to be considered is how much double cropping we may see once the winter wheat crop is harvested.  

* Positioning increase for month end reports
* More interest on acres than stocks
* Grain stocks may be surprising
* Recent selling indicates higher inventories
* More doubt over Chinese imports
* Ukraine grain production up 10 mmt on the year
* Global consumer prices rising
* Chinese consumer prices highest since Sep 2008
* US ethanol exports expected to remain strong
* Brazil currency values firming 

* China auctioning state supplies
* Analysts predict 94 mmt Brazil crop
* Pollination to start across Corn Belt
* China’s corn demand may have peaked
* Doubts over US rating improvement potential
* Brazil soybean exports slowing
* June Brazil exports estimated at 11 mmt
* June Brazil meal exports 1.96 mt
* US yearly exports 93% of estimates
* South Am basis weaker

* Winter harvest pressure minimal
* Spring crop continues to deteriorate
* Global stocks to tighten
* China remains active wheat feeder
* France raises export forecast
* COF this Friday
* High placements expected 
* Marketings likely up from culling
* US exports of beef/pork remain high
* Grilling demand thought to have peaked    
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