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E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

 
Wednesday, June 16, 2021
Country movement of farm stored inventory is being closely monitored. For one, now is when new crop production can be better determined, and sales of remaining old crop bushels can reflect crop potential. The better a developing crop looks the more inclined farmers typically are to market remaining old crop bushels. Better looking crops tend to lead to elevated new crop sales as well. Farmers across the Corn Belt sold a large volume of bushels right at harvest last fall and have been stingy with sales since. Over the last few weeks we have seen sales interest build though, especially when futures perk up. This is applying pressure to the market overall though, as buyers do not need to push basis bids to encourage movement. Trade is also using recent movement trends to try and determine how much inventory may be seen in the month end stocks report. There are also questions being asked over the inventory that is not being moved at this time. The main one of these is what the quality of these bushels is. There are thoughts than any bushels not being moved at today’s futures or basis values is in poor conditions and may need higher quality new crop for blending.  

Highlights
* Freight costs starting to impact trade
* Parana River lowest level in 22 years
* Less concern in market on old crop reserves
* Rationing still needs to continue
* Long range outlook of market still friendly
* Timing of US rains more negative than precip totals
* Satellite imagery predicts lower yields than USDA
* US DDG values under pressure
* Presidents Biden and Putin meeting today
* Fed to meet on interest rates, no change expected 


Corn
* Brazil may ease GMO import regulations
* Brazil importing Argentine corn 
* Argentine production larger than thought
* So American basis under pressure
* Brazil may see defaults due to low yields
 
Soybeans
* Quarterly stocks may be higher than thought
* Global oilseed market is top heavy
* Very few defaults on Brazil contracts
* China puts 2021/22 imports at 102 mmt
* NOPA crush for May less than expected

Wheat
* Demand not slowing for feed
* Import tenders cancelled due to freight
* French wheat 80% G/E
* Brazil raises wheat production forecast
* EU production up 9% from last year
 
Livestock
* Cash cattle trade remains thin
* Boxed beef under heavy pressure
* Beef values down in 6 of last 8 sessions
* Pork export rebound expected
* Buyers focused on July 4th needs ​
  
RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.