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E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

 
Tuesday, June 15, 2021
As expected, the rating of the US crops declined last week. The corn rating is down 4 points to 68% Good/Excellent. The soybean crop rating is down 5% at 62% G/E. This soybean rating is raising some questions though as the crop is only 86% emerged, and while ahead of normal, it is making it hard to give an accurate crop rating. Now that the weekly progress report is out of the way, trade will again focus its attention on immediate and future weather conditions. Parts of the United States are at their driest levels of the past twenty years, mainly in the western and upper Plains. The most notable right now is Iowa where soil moisture is its lowest since 2000. Others claim to have the lowest amount of moisture sine the drought year of 2012. In fact the month of June is on track to be one of the driest in the past 126 years. That said, we are still seeing models that indicate even with current soil conditions we can still see trend of better yields in the United States if timely rains start to be received. Current models indicate this is possible, as more forecasts are showing elevated precipitation chances and moderating temperatures for much of the United States over the next two weeks.  

Highlights
* Heavy rains forecasts for Corn Belt
* Some regions may see 9 inches of precip in next week
* Buyers expected on market break
* World food import costs +12% this year
* US consumer pricing up 5% in May
* Inflation becoming a major concern
* Chinese corn consumption too high
* US ethanol production highest of the year
* Trade continues to show concern with cyber attacks
* Ratings may improve next week with rains 


Corn
* Crop is now 68% G/E
* Argentine corn sales +3 mmt year ago 
* Ethanol demand 125 mbu larger than forecast
* Exports may be too high
* China continues to lower corn import forecast
 
Soybeans
* Crop now 62% G/E
* NOPA crush today est 165.1 mbu
* Brazil loading soybeans for US
* Argentine sales -4 mmt last year
* Oil rebounds, supports soy complex

Wheat
* Winter wheat 4% harvested
* Winter wheat 48% G/E
* Spring wheat 37% G/E
* Minimal US harvest pressure
* World demand outpacing production 
 
Livestock
* China continues to buy pork for reserves
* Chinese hog values -50% this year
* US cash cattle in $3.00 range for 2 months
* Lows may be in on cattle
* Pork exports slowing  ​
 
RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.