E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

Monday, June 14, 2021
Now that the monthly WASDE numbers are behind us, trade will start to focus more on the reports that will be released at the end of the month. These are the revised planting numbers from the March intentions report and the quarterly stocks data that will be released on June 30th. The majority of the interest will fall on the acreage numbers as sizable changes are expected from March. The current corn planting figure is 91.1 million acres, but we have seen several analysts raise it to 96 and even 97 million acres given planting season weather and projected returns. Soybean acres are also expected to increase from the 87.6 million March figure, and possibly reach 90 million according to average estimates. While these are both possible, the likelihood is low given historical tendencies. Typically we do not see total acreage increases of more than 3 to 3 ½ million from March to June. One surprise in the acreage could come from wheat where abandonment is being reported and how these acres may make it into other crops. The quarterly stocks data will also be released, and this will be closely monitored as well. These totals will give us a clearer indication of what we may see for actual ending stocks this this year.  

* US weather move favorable
* Crop ratings mixed tonight
* Further wheat rating decline is expected
* White House considers bio-fuel relief for refiners
* Mexico again showing GMO import concerns
* Chinese importers seeing lengthy unload waits
* 30-35% of US in drought conditions
* Ethanol margins remain favorable
* Processors satisfied with coverage
* China sourcing most needs from SAM 

* Old/new inverse unstable
* China raises new crop production 
* Mexico ups corn import forecast
* GMO regulations will limit Mexico’s sources
* Low Argentine values attract buyers
* Brazil to increase production
* Higher US plantings expected
* Emergence distorts crop condition
* US loadings need to average 17 mbu/week
* Argentine sales increase

* Harvest remains slow
* Reports continue to field abandonment
* Russian spring crop in drought
* EU milling wheat supply to increase
* Australian crop estimates up 11% 
* Chinese hog production below breakeven
* China’s government to increase hog purchases
* No deliveries against June cattle
* Cash cattle $1.50 to $3.00 over futures
* Hogs overvalued, cattle undervalued    

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