E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

Friday, June 11, 2021
There is little doubt yesterday’s USDA data will still impact today’s trade. In fact, for the past several months, the majority of the reaction to balance sheets has been more in the day following the report than the day of. This month is unlikely to be any different. One number from yesterday that received the most attention actually came out before the WASDE data, that being the Conab corn production figure for Brazil. This was cut a full 10 million metric tons from May to just 96.6 million metric tons. This also put production under last year by 6 million metric tons. As a result, Conab lowered its Brazilian corn export forecast by 5.5 million metric tons from last year. Not only will this lower Brazilian exports, but it is already elevating Brazilian corn imports. Brazil has already upped its corn imports by 70% from a year ago, and this will likely build. The most talked about numbers from yesterday on the domestic side were to demand, mainly the lack of expected change. The shocker was the 15 million bu reduction to old crop soybean crush. Trade also believes the USDA was too light in its corn demand increase of just 150 mbu. While these numbers will still be debated today, look for weather to again be the driver of price discovery. 

* WASDE provides little support
* Positioning now begins for June 30th reports
* EU corn rated very good
* Nitrogen fertilizer rallies
* Global inflation continues
* World economy improves
* Consumer spending outpacing supplies
* Brazil farmers increase sales
* Doubts cast over Chinese import needs
* Weather forecasts drive futures

* Old crop ending stocks 1.1 bbu
* New crop production 15 bbu
* New crop carryout 1.36 bbu
* Global new crop carryout 289.4 mmt
* Average US new crop values $5.70
* Old crop carryout 135 mbu
* Production est 4.4 bbu
* New crop carryout est 155 mbu
* World ending stocks 92.6 mmt
* Average new crop cash price $13.85

* All wheat production 1.89 bbu
* US old crop carryout 852 mbu
* New crop carryout 770 mbu
* World ending stocks 296.8 mmt
* Average Us price $6.50
* Beef exports build, pork slows
* 2021 beef production 27.9 billion pounds
* 2021 average steer value $117.00/cwt
* 2021 pork production 28.2 billion pounds
* 2021 average hog value $70.18/cwt  

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