E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

Thursday, June 10, 2021
While most of the attention on the domestic numbers in today’s report may be on production, we should see just as much on demand. One of the main questions ever since the initial new crop balance sheets were released last month has been on exports.  The USDA predicted 325 million bu fewer corn exports next year than this year, even though we have seen sizable sales in recent weeks. The same is true on soybeans where demand was lowered 205 million bu from this year to next. The reasoning for this was larger competition in the global market due to elevated crops in other countries, mainly Ukraine on corn and Brazil on soybeans. While these will elevate competition, we have not seen any indication it will reduce US sales. At the same time, the USDA may wait until we are closer to the yearly projected export totals before altering balance sheets. Elevated domestic demand is also possible, mainly ethanol and crush. It is possible that these numbers could have just as much impact on balance sheets as any change to production. We cannot rule out changes to wheat demand today either, especially with the elevated feed demand we have seen in recent months.  

* WASDE report at 11:00 AM CT
* Trade expecting slight increase to US production
* Several traders looking forward to June 30th reports
* Argentine crush at 6 year high
* US ethanol production +9% in past month
* China accounts for nearly 50% of ethanol exports
* China continues to shop for alternative feed grains
* Chinese soy meal at a 1 week supply
* Spring wheat area driest in past 7 years
* New crop values need to ration demand

* Old crop ending stocks est 1.2 bbu 
* New crop yield at 179.4 bpa
* New crop production 15 bbu
* New crop carryout est 1.4 bbu
* Global new crop carryout est 288.6 mmt
* Old crop carryout est 122 mbu
* New crop yield est 50.8 bpa
* Production est 4.4 bbu
* New crop carryout est 143 mbu
* World ending stocks est 91.1 mmt

* All wheat production est 1.89 bbu
* US old crop carryout est 868 mbu
* New crop carryout est 781 mbu
* World ending stocks est 294.6 mmt
* Milling quality wheat stocks questioned
* Seasonal high in hogs typically in late June
* Pork exports forecast to decline
* US hog supply expected to rebuild
* Cash markets steady this week
* China to buy pork for reserves  

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