Menu
 

E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

 
Thursday, June 10, 2021
While most of the attention on the domestic numbers in today’s report may be on production, we should see just as much on demand. One of the main questions ever since the initial new crop balance sheets were released last month has been on exports.  The USDA predicted 325 million bu fewer corn exports next year than this year, even though we have seen sizable sales in recent weeks. The same is true on soybeans where demand was lowered 205 million bu from this year to next. The reasoning for this was larger competition in the global market due to elevated crops in other countries, mainly Ukraine on corn and Brazil on soybeans. While these will elevate competition, we have not seen any indication it will reduce US sales. At the same time, the USDA may wait until we are closer to the yearly projected export totals before altering balance sheets. Elevated domestic demand is also possible, mainly ethanol and crush. It is possible that these numbers could have just as much impact on balance sheets as any change to production. We cannot rule out changes to wheat demand today either, especially with the elevated feed demand we have seen in recent months.  

Highlights
* WASDE report at 11:00 AM CT
* Trade expecting slight increase to US production
* Several traders looking forward to June 30th reports
* Argentine crush at 6 year high
* US ethanol production +9% in past month
* China accounts for nearly 50% of ethanol exports
* China continues to shop for alternative feed grains
* Chinese soy meal at a 1 week supply
* Spring wheat area driest in past 7 years
* New crop values need to ration demand


Corn
* Old crop ending stocks est 1.2 bbu 
* New crop yield at 179.4 bpa
* New crop production 15 bbu
* New crop carryout est 1.4 bbu
* Global new crop carryout est 288.6 mmt
 
Soybeans
* Old crop carryout est 122 mbu
* New crop yield est 50.8 bpa
* Production est 4.4 bbu
* New crop carryout est 143 mbu
* World ending stocks est 91.1 mmt

Wheat
* All wheat production est 1.89 bbu
* US old crop carryout est 868 mbu
* New crop carryout est 781 mbu
* World ending stocks est 294.6 mmt
* Milling quality wheat stocks questioned
 
Livestock
* Seasonal high in hogs typically in late June
* Pork exports forecast to decline
* US hog supply expected to rebuild
* Cash markets steady this week
* China to buy pork for reserves  

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.