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E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

 
Wednesday, June 02, 2021
As expected, a large volume of US corn seeding took place last week. The crop is now 95% planted and 81% emerged, both well ahead of average. More attention was on the initial corn rating that was higher than expected at 76% Good/Excellent. Normally the initial corn rating is 67% G/E. The US soybean crop is 84% planted and 62% emerged, both well ahead of average as well. The winter wheat rating held at 48% G/E and the spring wheat is just 43% G/E. When it comes to ratings more attention is on the US pastures that are just 31% G/E and indicates we may see elevated feed grain demand through the year. While not an accurate indicator of yield potential, trade will be closely monitoring crop conditions over the next few weeks. Any decline ion crop ratings will be associated with a decline in yield potential as well. Trade will also be monitoring any possible changes to plantings over the next two weeks. Data is currently being collected for the June revisions to the March intentions report. We have heard reports of some spring wheat acres being torn up in drought areas and replanted to corn and soybeans. While not a considerable amount, there could be enough to alter initial planting estimates. 

Highlights
* US ethanol margins best in years
* US ethanol production still under 2019
* Ethanol plants slow to resume operations
* Total energy demand is reaching pre-Covid levels
* Food prices to increase another 2.1% in 2021
* US/China continue to work on trade relations
* Technicals indicate temporary bottom 
* Replants needed in some parts of US
* Heat, drought also impacting Canada
* Hackers now targeting world packing plants 

Corn
* US corn crop 95% planted
* Corn rated 76% G/E
* Continue to see reports of elevated plantings
* Feed grains expected to remain volatile
* New crop export sales a record 576 mbu
 
Soybeans
* Planting at 84% 
* Crop is 62% emerged
* April crush at 170 mbu
* Double cropping may be up
* New crop demand under estimates 

Wheat
* Winter wheat crop 48% G/E
* Spring wheat 97% planted
* Spring wheat 43% G/E
* 2020/21 miss loading target by 4% 
* US wheat harvested acres over-estimated
 
Livestock
* JBS hacking causes more plants to close 
* Boxed beef weakens
* JBS issues to cause country back-up
* US hogs over valued
* Hogs a $5.00+ premium to fed cattle  

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.