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E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

 
Tuesday, June 01, 2021
Tonight’s weekly crop progress report may be one of the most watched so far this growing season. This will give us our initial look at corn crop condition. Thoughts are we will see a favorable rating given recent weather across the Corn Belt. Any number that is released will immediately be met with skepticism though given the early stage of the growing season. While this opinion is hard to dispute, the higher the initial rating the more room the crop has to be adjusted and still remain historically high. We will also start to see analysts take the crop ratings and try to predict final production. While there re correlations between high ratings and production, it is nearly impossible to forecast a yield on crop ratings alone. What a high crop condition number can show how much stress the crop has been subjected to. As always, these numbers will be heavily monitored all growing season. Now that the calendar has turned to June, we will also start to see more positioning for the monthly WASDE report that will be released on the 10th. We will also start to see estimates and positioning for the June 30th USDA quarterly stocks and revised planting reports. 

Highlights
* Gulf export interest falling
* Excess soil moisture continues in Delta
* Marketing interest now on new crop
* US seeing elevated weather premium
* US ethanol stocks to use tightest in 10 years
* Index fund roll begins next Monday
* Country selling halted
* Initial corn crop rating expected tonight
* Planting expected to be mostly complete on corn
* Reports of frost over the weekend 

Corn
* Rumors of corn exports rolled forward
* Corn planting mostly complete
* Possible frost damage in Brazil
* Basis values weaken
* Initial rating expected above average
 
Soybeans
* Chinese buying has slowed
* Chinese soy oil under Argentina
* Tight US inventory remains supportive
* Soy planting near 90% tonight
* Census crush estimated at 171.1 mbu 

Wheat
* Feeders taking Black Sea offers
* China shopping for EU supplies
* US crops are variable
* China expects record crop
* Wheat futures following corn
 
Livestock
* Packer demand focused on July 4th 
* Consumer demand not slowing
* Weaker grains benefit feeders
* Record beef production to continue
* Chinese hog values -14% in past 2 weeks  

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