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E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

 
Tuesday, March 23, 2021
We are paying very close attention to US export sales and loadings as the South American harvest and export program advance. There have been worries for the past several months that the United States may see cancelations to previous bookings, especially those to China. China has not backed out on its soybean purchases though, and this is easing worries over its corn purchases. China has been slow to take deliveries of its soybean purchases, mainly because it was importing large volumes of soybeans and port space has been limited, both for their unloading and for US loading. This is starting to ease in the United States and corn loadings have increased. This may offer a narrow window for unloadings in China though as numerous South American soybean vessels will soon be arriving. The uncertainty with China is what their domestic demand is. African Swine Fever continues to be reported in China and is impacting demand. China has also opted to take delivery of finished products recently, including ethanol, pork, and beef. What may be the greatest benefit for US loadings is the uncertainty surrounding the South American crops, both on size and quality. If we would see any cancellations, they would likely happen in the next few weeks.  

Highlights
* Global rains alleviate drought 
* US economy to continue recovering
* Now expected to grow 6.5% this year
* Inflation now estimated at 2.4%  
* Demand for US commodities not slowing 
* Most grain/soy interest is on old crop
* Drought impacting Mexican production
* China not showing interest in new crop coverage
* Equities continue to attract buyers 
* Country movement remains steady, no fresh sales 

Corn
* China has bought 7% of 2020 crop
* Warm US forecast to benefit plantings
* High fertilizer may limit added acres
* US has 70.9 mbu new crop sold
* China has booked 885 mbu US corn
 
Soybeans
* Poor crush margins limit Chinese demand
* Brazil crop estimates rising
* More analysts predict 135-136 mmt crop
* Argentina has sold 25% of projected crop
* Soy oil leads complex 
 
Wheat
* Egypt to increase wheat reserves
* Black Sea optimistic on production
* EU lowers export forecast
* US sales 70% of yearly estimate
* Israel developing drought tolerant wheat
 
Livestock
* Beef in cold storage at 510.9 mil pounds
* Pork in cold storage 491.4 mil pounds
* Pork belly reserve at 37.97 mil pounds
* Beef up from Feb 2020, pork/bellies down
* Beef/pork down from January, bellies higher

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