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E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

 
Friday, March 19, 2021
Heavy selling hit that market yesterday on inflation worries and news that some regions of the world are again locking-down due to Covid, including Paris. This selling subsided overnight, allowing values to rebound. The dominant factor in the market for the next several sessions will be getting final positions in place ahead of the March 31st acreage and stocks reports. The most attention is on the acres. The average guess so far is 92 million acres of corn and 90 million on soybeans. Trade is also projecting wheat acres at 45 million. While these will also be increases from last year, soybean plantings will see the greatest increase if correct. Some models indicate that even if we plant this number of soybean acres, we will still need an above trend yield to maintain any acceptable level of ending stocks. Do not be surprised to see the market hold more risk premium ahead of the planting season on a need for acres. This is likely to continue all year as any adverse weather condition will receive a reaction. We cannot rule out a surprise from the stocks data at the end of the month as well. Any increase in stocks will ease the worry on acres, while any decrease will only amplify the need for additional plantings.  

Highlights
* Analysts raise Brazil export forecasts 
* SAM harvest pressure building
* Floods may still impact Brazil for months
* US national crop reports start April 5th 
* Shift to wetter US pattern seen 
* No delays seen for planting
* Acreage estimates continue to rise
* Market inversion builds
* China continues to struggle with ASF 
* Trade talks with China reported as “tense” 

Corn
* China buys 118 mbu in past 3 days
* US corn to China still profitable
* Buyers shopping for summer needs
* Brazil claims 75% of corn planted in good conditions
* Rains stabilize Argentine crop
 
Soybeans
* Soy oil is leading complex
* Chinese meal 16% off January high
* Soybean exports a record to date
* Acreage estimates reduce need to push bids
* Most buyer attention is on Brazil 
 
Wheat
* CME to launch Ukraine contract
* New contract will help manage Black Sea risk
* Chinese demand auction slows
* US Plains see beneficial rains
* US crop rating continues to rise
 
Livestock
* Weekly beef sales +24% at 25,900 mt
* Pork sales +23% week to week at 39,700 mt
* March 1st Cattle on Feed after close
* On feed expected at 101.4%
* Feb placements and marketings at 97.4%

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.