E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

Thursday, February 18, 2021
There have been reports of US sales bookings being cancelled in the past week. This was initially on corn, but also on soy meal. This is the result of the price spread between the United States and other exporters, mainly South America. Brazil is offering soybeans well below the United States which is taking away our export interest. In fact, Brazil soybeans have now deteriorated to a point where US imports would be possible. This is most likely into the Southeast feed market. The United States may also see elevated meal imports given the recent price spreads. The USDA pegged soybean imports at 35 million bu in last week’s WASDE report, but the general feel is this total is too low. Most private analysts have the import total closer to 70 million bu which is not out of the question. It is not out of the question we could see this number walked up if exports continue to take place. The United States has also seen cancellations to corn sales take place. While there are several reasons being given for this, the fact that it is corn that is not going to leave the US is tempering corn complex enthusiasm.  

* Ag Outlook Forum starts today 
* Private Sam acreage estimates above USDA
* Winter weather continues to disrupt country movement
* River movement also slowed
* La Nina re-building; expected through June
* Brazil Safrinha planting at 8%, normal is 33%
* Soybean oil content so far a record this year
* US consumer spending up 5.3% in January
* Stimulus to provide more economic strength
* Weekly export sales expected to decline

* New crop export sales slow to build
* US has 35.4 mbu new crop sold
* Export loadings remain light
* Brazil raises 3rd crop potential
* Weather supports Arg yields as well
* US only needs to sell 65 mbu old crop to meet projection
* Sales only need to total 10 mbu per month
* New crop soybean sales already at 162.5 mbu 
* Palm Oil production lowest since 2010
* Brazil 21/22 crop estimated at 142 mmt
* EU/UK export projection raised
* Freight costs limit US sales
* Australia making large sales
* Record Australian crop to offset other losses 
* Low Russian values also attract buyers 
* Packing plants now slowing to conserve natural gas
* Livestock movement reduced by weather as well
* Meat supplies at retailers a concern in Southern US
* Wholesale beef remains under pressure
* Pork cutouts show strength

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