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E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

 
Wednesday, February 10, 2021
There is little doubt trade will continue to sift through yesterday’s WASDE data today. It is not surprising that several analysts are already showing disagreement with the USDA balance sheets that were released yesterday. The most discrepancy is on soybean usage and ending stocks. Given the rate that we have been selling soybeans at many analysts feel yearly usage will be higher. The same goes for soybean crush. Monthly crush volumes have been record large for the past several months and the trend is expected to continue. The fact that many crushers are not offering product past the spring months has some questioning this though, as it appears as though crushers may believe demand is front loaded and will trail off. Difficulty in sourcing soybeans to crush may also become a factor as the year progresses. The same is true on ethanol usage for corn. Ethanol manufacturers claim demand will increase this summer as travel restrictions are lifted the US population starts to make vacation plans. While bans may be lifted it does not necessarily mean travel will resume, however. It may take years for the US population to resume normal travel patterns, limiting ethanol demand.  

Highlights
* Scouts claim Brazil crops are larger
* Economy reacting to Covid vaccine progress 
* More countries worried over food inflation
* Spreading diseases not slowing Chinese demand
* Trade remains focused on Argentine drought
* Ongoing talk of Argentina raising export taxes
* Brazil may stall move for foreign land ownership
* Cold temps impacting US logistics
* High commodity values increase land buying
* Market now focused on Ag Outlook Forum next week 

Corn
* US ending stocks 1.5 bbu
* Global carryout 286.5 mmt
* Average cash value est $4.30
* China accounts for 695 mbu of US sales
* Brazil ending stocks minimal
 
Soybeans
* US ending stocks 120 mbu
* Global stocks 83.4 mmt
* Average US cash value $11.15
* China accounts for 1.5 bbu of US sales
* China purchases nearly equal to all sales in 2019/20
 
Wheat
* US ending stocks 836 mbu
* World stocks 304.2 mmt
* Average US cash values $5.00
* Record wheat feeding in China
* World wheat crop a record 773.4 mmt 
 
Livestock
* 2021 beef production est 27.54 billion pounds
* Beef production raised 350 million pounds from Jan
* 2021 pork production est 28.71 billion pounds
* Pork production raised 145 million pounds from Jan 
* ASF continues to spread in China

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