E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

Tuesday, February 09, 2021
The February WASDE data is scheduled to be released today at 11:00 AM CT. While much of the attention on this release will be on production and export sales, there are other factors that will impact balance sheets as well, primarily domestic usage. For one trade is anticipating a higher crush number than what was released in January. This is from the steady increase we have seen to crush in recent months with a steady record volume being consumed. There are some doubts over the long-term crush rate though as select US crushers have announced they will not be offering product past May. This gives trade the indication that plants may not have enough soybeans to crush and processing will drop. A decline in US bio-diesel production may also be seen given the recent trend in that industry. Trade will also show considerable interest in ethanol demand on corn as even though we are meeting the usage volume needed to reach the current yearly projection, there are thoughts this will increase as summer approaches. Another domestic use being questioned is feed as high costs may limit corn usage in favor of cheaper alternatives.  

* Reports Brazilian farmers may default on sales
* US economy shows signs of strengthening 
* CME continues to raise margins
* Market optimistic on Covid vaccine results
* Quality of South American crops questioned
* Interior US basis firming
* Brazil not lowering Safrinha acreage estimates
* Food inflation more of a market factor
* SAM offers dropping below US
* February WASDE report at 11:00 AM CT 

* US ending stocks est 1.39 bbu
* Global carryout est 280 mmt
* Argentine crop est 47 mmt
* Brazil crop est 108.4 mmt
* Trade also focused on Ukraine production
* US ending stocks est 123 mbu
* Global stocks est 83.3 mmt
* Argentine crop est 44 mmt
* Brazil crop est 132.5 mmt
* Privates have Brazil crop at 136 mmt
* US ending stocks 834 mbu
* World stocks est 312.6 mmt
* New crop wheat sales 145% of year ago
* Old crop wheat sales 84% of estimates
* Smaller Canadian crop benefits US 
* Dec beef exports 285.8 million pounds
* Last 5 months of 2020 beef exports all record high
* 2020 beef exports still 3 year low from slow start
* Dec pork exports 636 million pounds 
* 2020 pork exports a record 7.28 billion pounds

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