E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

Thursday, December 24, 2020
Soybeans remain the leader of the market, taking support from the need for rationing of domestic reserves. Today’s session will be shortened as activity winds down ahead of the Christmas Holiday. Trade will end at 12:05 PM CT today and all markets will be closed tomorrow. Trade will resume Sunday night as usual. Many traders exited the market last week and have been absent this week and will likely remain so next week as well. Trade will again be closed next Friday for New Years. This type of trade generates low trade volume but that does not mean low volatility. In fact trade over the next week can be some of the most volatile of the year. This is not just in futures but also in cash as buyers try to secure needs. It is not uncommon to see sizable cash incentives paid during the final two weeks of the year as country movement of commodities grinds to a halt. We have not seen much for country selling interest since harvest though and not much is expected now either. This may keep any basis incentive to commercials as that is where the most deliveries are likely to come from. 

* Corn/wheat in China same value
* China now shopping for new crop supplies
* New crop soybeans look more attractive
* Over 100 vessels waiting to load in Argentina as strike continues
* US ethanol production up 2% last week
* US ethanol stocks up for 8th week
* FND on Jan contracts is next Thursday
* Today is LTD on Jan options
* Markets close at 12:05 CRT today
* Trade resumes Sunday night as usual

* Ethanol demand may be over-stated 
* Same thoughts now on feed demand
* Funds not active in corn 
* Argentine corn reported 24% G/E
* Weekly sales a yearly low at 25.63 mbu
* Argentine meal exports for Dec only 25% of sales
* Argentine oil sales just 14% of volume sold
* Argentine farmers may reduce acres
* Malaysia taxes palm oil exports 8%
* Weekly sales a yearly low at 12.96 mbu
* China shopping for US supplies
* Ukraine lowers export forecast
* Market not expecting large Russian sales
* Australian yields remain very high
* Argentine yields not as bad as thought
* Weekly beef sales -40% for 2020 at 6,000 mt
* Pork sales for the week -59% for 2020 at 16,300 mt
* 2021 sales 7,200 mt beef, 23,400 mt pork
* US hog inventory -1% at 77.5 million
* Breeding hogs -3%, market hogs -1%

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.