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E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

 
Wednesday, November 18, 2020
Soybeans remain the leader of the commodity market as trade is increasingly aware that more rationing is needed in the complex. Trade is closely monitoring the daily and weekly export sales numbers for signs of rationing. While last week’s sales report did not indicate this, those numbers were for a time frame prior to the latest WASDE report. Tomorrow’s numbers will include post-report activity and the higher values that trade has seen since, especially on soybeans. A considerable volume of soybeans has already been booked and some importers claim they now have enough coverage to last until the South American crop becomes available. Those soybeans have already been locked in as well, and at lower values than what we are seeing today. While we will continue to see buyers take soybeans for immediate needs, we may see a reduction to buying for storage such as China has been doing. It would also not be surprising to see some of these soybeans taken back out of storage to cover needs if futures remain at elevated levels. South American weather is also driving current trade as not only are dry conditions expected to last but now we are seeing heat build in parts of Brazil that will further stress crops. 

Highlights
* Markets searching for fresh news
* Fund attitude favors soybeans over grains
* US ethanol production -6% from year ago
* Ethanol stocks expected to build again today
* Now starting to see heat build in Brazil
* Buyers surface on breaks
* More rationing is needed in soybeans
* Covid causing demand worries
* China importing sorghum over corn
* US interior basis continues to firm

Corn
* Buyers looking for alternative feed grains to corn 
* Funds not showing interest in corn
* Ukraine crop estimate keeps declining
* US remains world source for corn
* Rumors of Chinese buying not confirmed
 
Soybeans
* Canada reports record canola exports
* Canola oil stocks in No America tight
* Soy oil cheaper than other oils
* YTD sales +124% year ago
* Brazil yearly soybean sales at 72 mmt
 
Wheat
* US crop estimate rising
* US YTD sales +21% year ago
* Argentine crop continues to decline
* Buyers pass on US in world market
* Australian crop +1.5 mmt from USDA estimates
 
Livestock
* US hog slaughter +106% since September
* US hog slaughter highest since 2012
* Smaller hog numbers in next inventory report
* Heavier slaughter weights reported
* Avian flu detected in Missouri

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.