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E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

 
Tuesday, November 10, 2020
Very little harvest is left to be done in the United States. As of Sunday night, 91% of the corn and 92% of the soybean crops had been harvested. For wheat, 93% of the winter crop has been seeded. The main driver in today’s session will likely be the release of the monthly balance sheets. For the most part trade is not expecting to see major changes to ending stocks on corn or wheat from the October release, but we may see some to soybeans. We may see some alterations to the production numbers, but more so on the demand side. This is especially the case on soybeans where the Census numbers are outpacing the weekly inspections reports. Typically, the USDA tends to follow the Census data in balance sheets. If we see this take place today, we could see a sizable reduction to soybean carryout, even if production numbers are unchanged. It is more likely we will see changes to the global side of the report when it comes to production, with an emphasis on South America. In fact, now that the US harvest is mostly over and we are focusing on little other than demand, South American production will be much more of a driving factor behind daily price discovery. 

Highlights
* Corn 91% harvested, soybeans 92%
* Export loadings ahead of last year
* Energy market rebound supports grains, oilseeds
* Brazil expected to be dry all year
* Importers looking for alternative feed grains to corn
* Brazil adapts US GMO soy policy
* Equity markets remain firm
* November WASDE report at 11:00 AM CT
* Most attention on domestic soybean supply

Corn
* US corn yield estimated at 177.5 bpa
* Average crop estimate at 14.65 bbu
* US ending stocks at 2.05 bbu
* 20/21 world ending stocks 297.8 mmt
* CONAB pegs Brazil corn crop at 104.9 mmt
 
Soybeans
* Average US yield estimate 51.7 bpa
* US crop est 4.25 bbu
* US ending stocks est 239 mbu
* 20/21 world carryout 87.6 mmt
* CONAB estimates Brazil crop at 135 mmt
 
Wheat
* Winter wheat crop 93% planted
* Winter crop is 79% emerged
* Crop is now rated 45% G/E, +2%
* US carryout est 874 mbu
* 20/21 world ending stocks est 320 mmt
 
Livestock
* YTD beef exports 690,000 mt
* YTD pork exports at 1.6 mmt
* China accounts for 37.4% of pork exports
* Countries again culling birds from avian flu
* Migration making bird flu hard to control

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.