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E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

 
Tuesday, September 15, 2020
The weekly progress report has started to take a shift for corn. The crop is rated 60% Good/Excellent, but now that harvest is underway trade will be more interested in yields. Soybeans are rated 63% G/E, but as with corn, trade is now interested in production rather than ratings. Now that the September WASDE report is behind us, trade is focusing on the data that will be released at the end of the month. On September 30th we will receive the quarterly grain stocks. In effect, this will give us our old crop ending stocks figures. We will also see domestic wheat production updated as that data was omitted from the WASDE release. This data can not only alter old crop balance sheets, but those on new crop as well. September 30th is also the end of the quarter which can cause an increase in volatility ahead of it. Until then, we will start to see more attention on actual field collected data as harvest will gain momentum over the next few weeks. When it comes to harvest the most interest will likely fall on Iowa to see if crops are as bad as indicated. If not, it could not only cause a reaction in futures, but in local basis as well. Of course we will see more attention on South American weather as planting is now taking place there as well, mainly on Brazil’s soybean crop. 

Highlights
* State of global economy debated
* New crop acreage being predicted
* Crop damage from frost reported
* Feed grain demand expected to rise
* Trade still waiting for Covid relief package
* US/China political tensions rise
* CFAP payments reach $9.7 billion
* Markets become over-bought
* Rains moving through both Brazil and Argentina
* Black Sea reporting drought conditions

Corn
* US crop is 41% mature, normal is 32%
* US corn 5% harvested
* Chinese crop smaller than thought
* DDG values decline
* China to allow additional tariff-free imports
 
Soybeans
* Soybeans rated 63% G/E
* 37% of soybeans dropping leaves
* NOPA crush today at 169.5 mbu
* Chinese values weaker
* Frost hits Canadian canola
 
Wheat
* Spring wheat 92% harvested
* Winter wheat 10% planted
* Russia continues to raise crop est; now at 83.5 mmt
* US to see elevated export competition 
* Buyers already pass on US offers
 
Livestock
* Cattle slaughter -4.6% from year ago
* Hog slaughter +1.3% 
* US hog expansion to slow
* China bans German pork
* Germany is 3rd largest pork supplier to China

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.