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E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

 
Thursday, July 30, 2020
All attention will be on the weekly export sales totals today to see if the high rate of demand on soybeans continues. The United States has sold several cargos of soybeans in recent weeks, although that demand slowed this week. While that will not be reflected in today’s data, it will cause speculation going forward. Trade is interested to see who has been buying soybeans from the US other than China as well, as it is believed we will see Chinese demand drop considerably once they have enough secured to last until the next South American harvest season. For now the United States is the only source for soybeans in the global market though, so to see high demand at the present time is not surprising. We are also starting to see elevated pressure from South America on corn as the harvest of the Safrinha crop in Brazil gains momentum. Corn loadings have been slower than usual though as the country is focused on exporting as many soybeans as possible. One benefit the US has had is the collapse in the Dollar, which makes our offerings more affordable for an importer. The question hanging over all exports is how much coverage buyers have already secured and how much more they may need. The USDA is predicting large increases in exports for the upcoming marketing year, so until these levels of demand are surpassed, trade may be unwilling to price current sales into futures and balance sheets. As always weather will remain a factor in today’s trade as conditions remain mostly favorable across the Corn Belt, limiting the extent of buying we are seeing. 

Highlights
* Covid is limiting data collection from US fields
* China detains Brazil vessel due to Covid in crew
* China to start investing in Argentine pork production
* Covid relief package contains $20.5 billion for Ag
* Volatility starting to build
* US ethanol industry has rough outlook
* Ethanol production up 5.5% last week
* Ethanol stocks up 471,000 barrels on the week
* Ethanol reserves -4.2 million barrels from last week
* Attention back to outside markets
 
Corn
* Export loadings 16% behind year ago
* Global corn production forecast rising
* Brazil exports starting to increase
* Total Brazil corn sales under year ago
* Rally in Chinese corn supports US 
 
Soybeans
* Export loadings 28% under year ago
* Analysts keep raising 20/21 Brazilian crop
* Brazil soy sales a record pace
* Brazil soy plantings to increase 3.8%
* Global oilseed market rallies
 
Wheat
* Russian wheat offers under global market
* Egypt making large import purchases
* Drought losses build in Argentina
* Parts of EU suffer from flooding
* Spring wheat yields “disappointing” 
 
Livestock
* Cattle slaughter equal to last year
* Hog slaughter ahead of last year
* Cash trade very limited
* China moving imported pork right to supply line
* China to invest in Argentine hog production

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.