E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

Monday, June 22, 2020
This week’s trade will bring us elevated positioning for the long-awaited June acreage revisions and quarterly stocks data. Several firms have already published their estimates with an emphasis on plantings. The consensus seems to be traders are expecting to see a reduction to corn acres and an increase in soybean plantings. This is really not that surprising and is in-line with what trade has been expecting ever since the March data came out. Most estimate are calling for a 2-million-acre bump in soybean acres and a 3 million acre decrease to corn. This corn decline is actually less than what was initially predicted. It is not out of the question we could see corn acres decline and the number would still be bearish for futures. We will also likely see debate over the acreage numbers that are released this month as well. Reports are coming from across the Corn Belt that replants are being made in areas where stands were on the poor side. This does not necessarily mean we will see fewer acres, or that yields will be lower on those acres, but the possibility of them taking longer to mature is a reality. Slow maturity is a factor in last year’s crop that generated many of the quality issues we are seeing today. We will continue to see a large amount of attention on weather this week as we approach the pollination window on corn. This will start in southern areas this week and next and work its way north. At the present time weather appears to be favorable for the to take place. Other factors in price discovery this week will be daily demand reports and if we continue to see Covid-19 cases rise and what their expected impact on the global economy might be. 

* Dry pockets reported across Corn Belt
* More concern over drought on Spring Wheat
* IL River starting to close
* Chinese demand doubted
* Brazil to shift exports from soy to corn
* Low fertilizer values indicates lower demand
* China continues to sell corn at auctions
* US ethanol cheapest in global market
* China traces Covid cases to food markets
* Positioning rises for June 30th reports

* Further rating decline likely
* Planted acres to decline 3 million
* Export loadings decrease
* Cumulative exports 68% of total
* Analysts starting to question yields

* Planted acres to increase 2 million
* China remains buyer of new crop soybeans
* Crush helping offset slow old crop sales
* Soy exports at 80% of total
* Crude rebound helps soy oil

* Mills are pulling bids
* Winter wheat harvest advancing
* Low protein a concern
* Exports remain ahead of last year
* Spring crop estimates rising

* COF at 99.5% of last June
* Total on feed count was 11.67 million head
* May placements higher at 98.7%
* Placements totaled 2.04 million head
* May marketings low at 72.5%

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by  AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.